Is Ukraine headed for a ‘peace of attrition’?

As we have learnt over the past few weeks, trying to predict what US President Donald Trump may do next is a risky business. Still, it is virtually certain that later this week, when European leaders arrive for the Munich Security Conference – the continent’s top security gathering, held annually in Germany’s southern city – the Trump administration will be there to provide the first public indication of how it intends to bring about a halt to the Ukraine war, Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean have been signalling to each other and manoeuvring on this matter ever since Mr Trump

won the US election

in November 2024, famously promising “to end the war in 24 hours” if he returned to the White House. The US President also recently revealed that he discussed a conclusion to the conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who started it all by

invading Ukraine almost precisely three years ago,

in February 2022.