Holes in the recession story

With so much talk of stagnation, inflation, and stagflation in recent months, it is worth questioning whether the prevailing pessimism is justified. While I have shared in the gloom (warning early on that it could be a "bad year for markets"), I'm starting to reflect on my previous views, for four reasons.

First, I am struck by just how widespread the recession narrative has become. Almost everyone seems to believe that developed countries are heading into, or are already in, a recession. I have given multiple interviews to business consultants who all want to know "how to prepare for the recession". As I remarked to one of them, I know of no previous recession that was so confidently anticipated as the one that is supposedly upon us now.