Good policy is not a subjective matter of opinion

There is such a thing as good policy and bad policy – policies that work, and those that do not; policies that are in the national interest, and those that are not.

Whether or not a particular policy is good for the country is not a subjective matter of opinion. It can be established through a careful study of the issues and objectives, logical analysis, real life experience and sound judgment. And we should get the most capable team we can, with expertise and commitment, to work on our problems and come up with the best policies for the country.

In Singapore, this is not a controversial idea. But it has become so in some other countries, especially where the system has faltered; where successive governments have not delivered the results their populations expect; where the populations have lost trust in individual leaders and parties, or the entire political class, or the whole elite of these countries, or sometimes, in the whole system of government. When this happens, people become disillusioned and bitter. They feel betrayed. They stop believing that the country needs good policies to succeed, or good people to be in charge of it. And that these can be arrived at through cogent analysis and reasoning, and by carefully scrutinising candidates for public office. 

They say, “I don’t understand these matters. Nor do I follow the arguments. We’ve trusted the experts, and they have failed us. Enough of experts and expertise. Out with the elites.” In their frustration, they then support populist leaders who exploit their anxieties and angst, who peddle simplistic slogans, who advocate going with their gut instead of logical thinking or scientific evidence; and who work up their discontent in order to seize power.

Unsurprisingly, this often makes things worse rather than better. And sadly, this seldom causes the public to realise their grievous mistake, and conclude that the way out is once again to support good leaders and sound policies to put things right.      

This has happened in quite a few Western countries, even some which were once seen as paragons of democratic virtue and good government. It explains why the anti-vaccination movement and climate change denial have gained momentum in these countries, not to mention anti-globalisation.

Singapore is not in that tragic situation, and must never allow ourselves to get there. We see it as our job, as political leaders and civil servants, to come up with good policies and implement them well. We tell Singaporeans plainly and honestly about hard realities, and the rationale for our policy choices. Singaporeans understand that there is a right approach towards problems and issues, and that there is no free lunch. Because of our track record, they generally trust the Government to make the correct choices on their behalf, even if it means accepting difficult measures from time to time. We have sustained this for many years, made systematic progress, and steadily improved Singaporeans’ lives. And trust is crucial to this virtuous cycle.

Civil servants must have conviction

But good policies do not magically appear out of thin air. We need a high-quality public service to produce and implement them. Equally important are Ministers who are as familiar with the issues as their permanent secretaries, and who can provide the political inputs and substantive guidance essential to effective policy making.

Civil servants cannot get involved in party politics. But being apolitical does not mean being neutral about the direction of the country, or the substance of the policies you are in charge of. A civil servant’s role is not simply to implement whatever policy Ministers decide upon. You must have a view, take a stand, and make considered, sound recommendations to the political leadership. Having participated fully in formulating the policies, you must feel responsible for and committed to the policies ultimately adopted. You cannot be indifferent as to whether a particular policy is decided upon or its opposite. 

Civil servants must have conviction in your policies, contrary to the impression anyone may have formed from watching the British sitcom Yes Minister. This depends on your relationship with the Ministers, and requires a stability of policy and consistency of national direction. You cannot do this if Ministers come and go, or if policies chop and change. Fortunately, Singapore has maintained this stability and consistency over the past 60 years. This has enabled our civil servants to develop a close yet proper relationship with the political leaders. This is a crucial reason we have had an effective team, able to produce good policies and deliver good government for Singapore all these years. We – both Ministers and civil servants – must maintain this ethos of close partnership, conviction and excellence, so that we can continue to deliver good government to the country.

Good politics matters too

I recently published an essay on microeconomics in public policy in the Singapore Economic Review journal. The essay set out how we have used economic laws and market forces systematically and extensively in our policies, in order to achieve many social and economic objectives. I gave some examples – public housing, the Casino Entry Levy, pricing of PUB water and the U-Save rebates, the GST tax and GST Vouchers.

The implicit premise underpinning the essay is precisely that such a thing as good policy matters, exists, and it is the Government’s job to come up with such policies and implement them. But as several of my readers pointed out, at a more fundamental level, whether or not economically sound policies can be adopted, depends on whether such a rational approach to policymaking is politically feasible at all. In other words, it depends on getting the country’s politics right.

The Government must be able to win political support for good policies, and voters must be willing to support leaders who advocate for and implement such policies. Otherwise, even the most brilliant policy ideas remain just ideas, and simply cannot be carried out, which is unfortunately the case in many countries. As Jean Claude Juncker, a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and later European Commission President, famously put it: “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”

Singapore has been exceptional in avoiding Mr Juncker’s dilemma over a long period. We have sustained a virtuous cycle of good politics enabling good government, for the reasons I explained earlier. Sustaining this virtuous cycle involves getting a lot of other difficult preconditions right, including upholding absolute integrity and incorruptibility in Government, ensuring that elected leaders are working for their people and not for themselves, adopting realistic remuneration policies for public servants and political office holders and building a highly competent team of political leaders and civil servants, who not only have their hearts for Singapore, but are capable of delivering the high quality of government that Singaporeans have come to expect. We cannot assume that all this will just continue happening on its own. We have to work very hard to keep it going.

The external environment

There is yet another factor which has enabled Singapore to work in this exceptional way, but which is not within our control – and that is a favourable external environment.

For 60 years, we have benefitted from a generally stable, rules-based international order, anchored and championed by the United States. Peace and stability prevailed in most parts of the world, including in the Asia Pacific region. New economies and markets opened up to international trade and investment, particularly China. A multilateral trading system created a level playing field for economies big and small. The overall zeitgeist was one of win-win cooperation among countries that basically wished one another well, and wished to prosper together. Countries accepted greater interdependence as the way to achieve prosperity, and believed that this would reduce the risk of conflict and war. It was an exceptionally stable and peaceful period of world history.

Singapore made the most of these favourable conditions to grow and progress year-after-year, far beyond our own expectations. Our rational policies and long-term plans were not derailed by external events. And so the virtuous cycle of good policies and good politics could be sustained.

I do not believe the next 60 years will be anything like the last 60. The world is changing fundamentally. The international system is under tremendous strain. It is increasingly shaped by great power rivalry, and roiled by the unilateral and unexpected actions of some major countries. Major countries which once promoted and upheld the rules-based global order are now wielding their power overtly and directly, to seize immediate gains for themselves, in win-lose fights. Countries are weaponising dominant positions in particular industries or critical materials to gain leverage over opponents or to hold rivals back. All countries are having to invest more in security and defence, and prioritise national security and resilience over economic efficiency and growth.

All these mean less cooperation on trade and investments, and less prosperity and human welfare all round. The world has become less orderly and secure, and more chaotic and unpredictable. War and conflict are now more likely. Life has become much more dangerous for a small country like Singapore.

It will be much harder for the Government to deliver prosperity and progress for Singaporeans in this challenging, changed environment. There is a greater risk that the virtuous cycle of good policies and good government will falter. We need to work much harder to keep it going, and keep Singapore exceptional.

But that, we must absolutely do. We must draw on the resourcefulness and capabilities of the political leaders and the civil service to come up with solutions to the challenges and difficulties ahead. If not to solve them, at least to manage them. We must make the most of the energies and ideas of the population, in order to transform and upgrade Singapore not just top-down and centrally, but also bottom-up and across the board. We must strengthen the trust that Singaporeans have in each other, in their leaders, in the Government, and in the Singapore system. We must reinforce our social cohesion to tackle difficulties as one united people. And only thus can we continue to do the right things for Singapore, and keep Singapore exceptional, safe, and thriving for many years to come.      

The full speech can be found here.