Forum: Maduro’s capture signals that rules-based order may be at risk

For decades, the global system has been described as “rules-based” – anchored in sovereignty, multilateral institutions and agreed norms of behaviour. While imperfect, this framework provided a measure of
predictability, restraint and a shared language for managing disputes.

Recent events – including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States – have brought this underlying shift into sharper focus.

Regardless of one’s views of the individual involved, the episode raises broader questions about sovereignty and the extent to which power, rather than multilateral process, now shapes international outcomes.

This does not represent a sudden collapse of international law or a descent into global anarchy. Rather, it signals a gradual recalibration.

Rules continue to exist, but their application appears increasingly selective and contingent.

For small and middle powers, this evolution is especially consequential. A rules-based order offered protection through predictability; a power-based environment demands resilience through adaptability.

This transition is also reshaping perceptions of risk. Investors, boards and policymakers now incorporate geopolitics more explicitly into decisions once governed primarily by economics.

Importantly, this is not simply a binary contest between rival blocs. Many countries are choosing neither alignment nor confrontation, but pragmatic hedging.

For Singapore, the implications are nuanced. Our longstanding support for multilateralism and international law remains vital – not as ideology, but as national interest. At the same time, realism requires recognising that institutions alone cannot guarantee outcomes. Capability, credibility and consistency matter more than ever.

We may not be witnessing the end of the rules-based order, but we are clearly seeing the end of the assumption that rules operate independently of power. Navigating this environment will require clear-eyed realism and sustained effort to ensure that strength ultimately serves stability.

Tan Kok Heng