Forum: Is Budget 2023 enough to boost Singapore’s fertility rate?
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Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) hit a historic low in 2022 (More help for aspiring parents as fertility rate hits record low, Feb 25).
It has been more than 20 years since the Baby Bonus Scheme was introduced and the TFR has continued to decline. The latest 2022 TFR is 1.05, down from 1.41 in 2001, when the scheme was implemented.
Some sociologists note that the drop in 2022’s TFR happened in the Year of the Tiger in the Chinese zodiac calendar, which traditionally sees birth rates falling. Some say a better indicator would be to see the statistics for 2024, the Year of the Dragon. This is because Singapore’s birth rate tends to spike in the Dragon year, as many Chinese families see it as an auspicious year to have babies.
Do we expect the Dragon year in 2024 to significantly increase the TFR?
Past Dragon year data shows the TFR exhibiting a similar declining trend. In 1964, it was 4.83; in 1976, it was 2.11; in 1988, it was 1.96; in 2000, it was 1.6 and in 2012, 1.29.
How confident are we that the 2023 Budget will make a difference to the TFR? What’s the expected outcome and effectiveness?
Singapore’s replacement-level fertility is 2.1. There is a huge gap between that and the latest TFR of 1.05. Are we doing the same things and hoping for a different outcome?
Andrew Tan Kok Chua
