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Forget Trump’s tariffs. The real danger lies in China’s trade surplus

China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus poses a greater danger to world commerce than US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

China’s economic model has certainly delivered growth, but in an unbalanced way.

With US President Donald Trump’s high tariffs on Chinese goods, China has been increasing exports to its other trading partners.

PHOTO: REUTERS

Eswar Prasad

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China’s trade surplus – the amount by which its exports exceed its imports – hit a staggering

US$1.19 trillion (S$1.53 trillion) in 2025

, according to official numbers released on Jan 14. The figure shows just how much China is an exporting powerhouse. It is also a sign of China’s economic weakness – and of how its practices represent a greater danger to free trade than even US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The tariffs undoubtedly took a hammer to free trade. With the US retreating from its leadership role, China has tried to assume the mantle of being the promoter of globalisation and the defender of the multilateral rules-based system that underpins global trade (which, incidentally, the US played a major role in setting up).

Forget Trump’s tariffs. The real danger lies in China’s trade surplus

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