Economic Affairs

The day after the day after Russia's invasion

A new chapter in geopolitics and economics will unfold.

The tail section of a missile that hit a residential area of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Feb 25, 2022. PHOTO: AFP
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The author and New York Times columnist Tom Friedman once wrote that when you try to assess the impact of a war, it's more important to focus, not on the day after, but on what happens the day after the day after. He wrote this in relation to the Middle East, which has been the theatre of several wars, the outcomes of which turned out to be very different from what their perpetrators had envisioned at the start, as in Afghanistan and Iraq. But it may also be valid in relation to Russia's war on Ukraine.

Whichever way it goes, the outcome of this war will have profound implications for geopolitics, the global economy and the shape of energy markets.

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