Economic Affairs

Beware the tail risks that could upend markets in 2023

These include sticky inflation, a debt crash and an escalation of the war in Ukraine

Before we let “optimism bias” get the better of us, it’s only prudent to pause and consider some of the tail risks, says the writer. PHOTO: AFP
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Consider the market mayhem of 2022: more than US$30 trillion (S$40 trillion) wiped off the value of global stocks and bonds; the MSCI All-World index of developed and emerging market stocks tanking 20 per cent, the biggest fall since the global financial crisis of 2008; the benchmark S&P 500 down 20 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down by one third.

Even yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, deemed the safest investments in the world and a benchmark for many fixed-income assets, have soared, which means their prices have fallen, leading to massive capital losses.

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