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A new spectre looms over democracy: Prediction markets
They offer a troubling opportunity to manipulate public perceptions of the outcome of political events.
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A Polymarket billboard displaying New York City mayoral election odds in Times Square in New York on Nov 4.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
Jemima Kelly
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Any New Yorker wanting a steer on how things might have panned out in the city’s recent mayoral election could have done so without so much as glancing at a newspaper, turning on the TV or scrolling through social media. All they had to do was to look upwards – at one of several giant digital billboards that had suddenly popped up all over the city centre, featuring some pretty attention-grabbing numbers.
“94% MAMDANI 6% CUOMO”, the billboards screamed, along with the phrase “OKAY Trade” and then a company name: Polymarket.
