In 1968, Dutch political scientist Arend Lijphart considered a puzzle: How is it that countries with ethnic, religious and linguistic divisions remain stable despite the likelihood of undesirable outcomes such as communal violence?

Focusing on his native Netherlands, he concluded that if leaders are cognisant of such negative scenarios, they pre-emptively overcompensate through inclusive policy-making and power-sharing agreements. The process of anticipating worst-case outcomes and taking premeditated steps to avoid them is now known as the "Lijphart effect".