The Royal Oak for the price of a MoonSwatch?

Mark your calendars for May 16. If the watch world’s most-discussed rumour is to be believed, Swatch is about to do it again – and this time, it is reaching for one of horology’s most coveted icons.

Cryptic video teasers featuring colourful lanyards posted on Swatch’s Instagram account in early May have set collectors, resellers and watch forums buzzing.

The intrigue has spilt into print too, with sequential ads appearing over several days in newspapers worldwide, including The Straits Times and Lianhe Zaobao.

One series features the words “Royal” and “Pop” in a typeface strikingly similar to the font Audemars Piguet (AP) uses for its iconic Royal Oak. Another teases components of what is likely Swatch’s Sistem51 movement.

The conclusion, widely drawn online, is that Swatch may be collaborating with one of Switzerland’s most prestigious independent watchmakers.

The rumoured release, already dubbed “SwatchOak” or “Royal Pop” by fans, will drop on May 16, according to dates embedded in the teasers.

Adding to the speculation: Trademark records show that Swatch AG quietly filed “ROYAL POP” under international Class 14 – the jewellery and watches category – as far back as June 2024. When contacted, neither Swatch nor AP commented.

Previous Swatch collaborations have stayed firmly within the Swatch Group stable. The MoonSwatch paired with Omega in March 2022, while the Bioceramic Scuba Fifty Fathoms, launched in September 2023, teamed up with Blancpain.

AP, by contrast, is an independent maison with no prior ties to the Swatch Group, making any collaboration between the two genuinely unexpected

The Royal Oak’s origin story has been well documented. AP’s then managing director Georges Golay called designer Gerald Genta the evening before the 1970 Basel fair opened and asked him to design a steel sports watch by morning.

Genta apparently misheard the brief and thought Golay had asked for a watch with unprecedented water resistance, and he drew inspiration from a diver’s scaphander helmet he had seen as a child. The resulting design debuted commercially at the 1972 Basel as the world’s first luxury sports watch in stainless steel, priced at 3,300 Swiss francs, more than AP’s gold watches at the time.

A steel 37mm Royal Oak now retails for about $40,600 and typically comes with a waiting list. A Swatch interpretation would place one of watchmaking’s most recognisable designs within reach of a far wider audience, likely at a price comparable with current MoonSwatch models, which retail between $380 and $535.

To understand what May 16 could look like, consider what happened on March 26, 2022, the day the original MoonSwatch went on sale. The watch was an Omega Speedmaster-inspired chronograph in Swatch’s bioceramic material, priced at $372.

In London, the Carnaby Street store opened for barely half an hour before police were called, and it was shut for the rest of the day, with only around 10 customers served. In Toronto, more than a thousand people queued across three city blocks in the cold and rain.

In Singapore, the first arrivals turned up at the Swatch store at Ion Orchard’s Basement 2 at 5.30am. By 8am, about 1,000 people were gathered outside, with no clear queueing system in place. Police officers had to be deployed. At least one person fainted and was attended to by first aid responders.

While the initial frenzy eventually cooled as supply increased, the launch became one of the watch industry’s defining retail moments of the decade.

The commercial aftermath was notable. Swatch Group chief executive Nick Hayek told Bloomberg that sales of the Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch rose by more than 50 per cent in Omega stores following the MoonSwatch launch, with all Speedmaster models up by double digits. A low-priced watch, in other words, had lifted demand for its expensive inspiration, a result that surprised many observers.

The debate in watch circles now is whether a Royal Pop could produce similar results. Sceptics point out that the Royal Oak’s cachet rests heavily on its inaccessibility: long waiting lists, limited retail allocations and prices that have only climbed. Others note that the same arguments were made before March 2022, and were proven wrong.

Speculation about the product itself ranges from a bioceramic Royal Oak Offshore homage to something less predictable. What is confirmed is that both sides are silent, and May 16 is approaching.