What BTS’ return means to the K-pop industry – and why it comes with a full-length album in March

SEOUL – During K-pop boy band BTS’ extended four-year hiatus, K-pop retained its global visibility but struggled to keep the momentum it once commanded at the centre of the international music conversation.

While major acts such as Stray Kids, Blackpink, Twice and Seventeen filled the commercial vacuum left by BTS, none emerged as a singular symbolic force capable of defining the genre on a global scale.

Newer-generation acts have been praised for polished performances and striking visuals, but critics and industry observers note that few have matched BTS’ ability to capture broad public sentiment or reflect the cultural mood of the time.

As a result, K-pop’s influence has become more fragmented, lacking a clear figurehead to anchor its global narrative.

With the

group announcing their March 20 comeback

, BTS’ enduring symbolic power became evident. Fans around the world began mass streaming Run BTS. As at Jan 2, the 2022 track topped iTunes’ Top Songs chart in 61 countries and regions, including Brazil, Finland and Mexico.

Their fifth studio album marks their first full-group release in nearly four years. It will contain 14 tracks and reflect the group’s current perspectives following an extended period of individual activities and the fulfilment of their mandatory military service.

After the album’s release, the septet are to begin a world tour.

“BTS are still the most recognised name in K-pop. If there was only one K-pop group an average American could name, it would still be BTS,” said sociology professor Grace Kao at Yale University. “I think K-pop has had a strong presence in the Billboard Hot 100 chart (in the past year), but BTS have the potential to dominate it. They certainly can outsell any other K-pop act.”

BTS’ agency BigHit Music said the decision to return with a full-length album was made to “fully capture and convey what BTS are thinking at this point”.

Industry insiders, however, see a clearer long-term objective behind the move: positioning BTS for their first Grammy win – the final accolade missing from their unprecedented career.

BTS have been nominated for Grammy Awards four times to date – thrice for best pop duo or group performance from 2021 to 2023 and once for best music video in 2023 – but have yet to take home a trophy.

The group have already achieved virtually every other major milestone in global pop music, including wins at the American Music Awards and Billboard Music Awards.

With less than a month remaining until the 68th Grammy Awards takes place in February and BTS absent from the 2026 nominations, attention has shifted to the 2027 Grammys as the most realistic window for a breakthrough.

“During their military service, a significant number of songs must have accumulated – tracks written by the members themselves, songs curated by the A&R (artistes and repertoire) team and demos submitted by songwriters from around the world,” said music critic Lim Hee-yun. “Presenting all of that through a full-length album feels like the most ‘BTS-like’ way to return.”

Mr Lim added that Grammy considerations were likely a major factor behind the decision. “It’s almost certain they prepared songs with the Grammys in mind. The main track was probably chosen to be broadly accessible, like (2020’s) Dynamite, while the B-sides are likely more musically ambitious.”

Equally important is the narrative. A full-group comeback following the completion of military service marks what many fans and critics view as BTS’ “second chapter” – a storyline likely to resonate strongly with voters of the Recording Academy.

Timing also plays a critical role. A March release gives BTS roughly eight months of eligibility and promotion before Grammy nominations are announced in November. That window will allow the album to establish itself as one of the year’s defining releases, potentially dominating the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 through spring and summer.

From May through August, BTS can also maximise exposure to Grammy voters through US media interviews, radio campaigns and festival appearances.

If the group’s world tour includes extensive US dates in the first half of the year, the live-performance momentum could further strengthen their position in categories such as best pop duo or group performance.

Speculation surrounding the album’s sound and collaborators continues to swirl online. Interest intensified after American songwriter and producer Jon Bellion revealed in a recent interview that he had worked with BTS in Los Angeles alongside Swedish producer and hitmaker Max Martin.

Fans have also pointed to rumours suggesting a return to the group’s early “dark and hip-hop-influenced” roots, reinterpreted through a more mature lens. Some speculate that the main track may lean less towards the bright pop of Dynamite and more towards the dramatic, performance-driven intensity of On (2020) or Black Swan (2020).

If true, such a direction would align closely with the Grammy electorate’s preference for artistic introspection and musical depth – qualities BTS have long argued define their identity beyond chart success.

Beyond the music industry, BTS’ return could also carry broader cultural and economic implications for South Korea. The comeback aligns with President Lee Jae Myung’s emphasis on strengthening the country’s cultural soft power, particularly amid efforts to ease or lift China’s longstanding restrictions on South Korean cultural content.

South Korean and Chinese leaders agreed on Jan 5 to work towards a gradual resumption of cultural and content exchanges during their second summit in Beijing, South Korea’s presidential office said.

Galaxy Corporation and SM Entertainment, both included in the recent economic delegation accompanying the President’s state visit to China, are reportedly pushing for progress on the so-called “Hallyu ban”.

If China reopens fully to K-pop in 2026, industry observers say BTS’ return could accelerate a second major growth phase for the genre.

China, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, remains one of the largest potential consumer markets for South Korean content. Many experts argue that lifting restrictions is essential if South Korea’s cultural exports – including K-pop and gaming – are to reach the 300 trillion won (S$265 billion) scale.

Hybe, the parent company of BigHit Music, has been expanding its global footprint. It opened a Beijing branch last May, following earlier expansions in Japan, the US and Latin America, and established a local subsidiary in Mumbai, India, in September.

BTS’ return has also had a tangible impact on financial markets. Despite ongoing risks surrounding allegations of capital markets law violations involving Hybe chairman Bang Si-hyuk, reports projecting more than 1.2 trillion won in revenue from a 65-show BTS world tour sent Hybe shares up as much as 9 per cent intraday.

Analysts expect further gains once official tour details are announced on Jan 14.

In a handwritten letter to fans, BTS member RM wrote: “I waited more desperately than anyone.” And in a recent live stream, he added: “Something really big is coming. 2026 will be BTS’ year.” THE KOREA HERALD/ASIA NEWS NETWORK