Only question for Taylor Swift concert film: How big will it be?

LOS ANGELES – The world’s biggest pop star, Taylor Swift, is about to become the world’s biggest movie star – at least for a weekend.

The only question is whether the turnout for the 33-year-old American singer’s concert film will be enormous or truly colossal.

Box-office analysts keep raising opening-weekend estimates for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which will arrive in North American cinemas on Friday evening amid a lightning storm of free publicity.

The nearly-three-hour film was initially expected to sell about US$75 million (S$103 million) in tickets this weekend in the United States and Canada, with analysts reaching that estimate by studying pre-sales and moviegoer surveys.

As at Tuesday, the domestic number was looking more like US$125 million.

Could it reach US$150 million? Yes, said Mr David Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter on box-office numbers. “The fever and scale are unprecedented.”

The Eras Tour, which cost Swift roughly US$15 million to make, is expected to collect an additional US$60 million overseas – at a minimum – over the weekend.

It opens in Singapore on Nov 3.

The domestic box-office record for a concert film debut is held by Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (2011).

It collected US$41 million over its first three days in North American theatres, adjusted for inflation, and ultimately US$101 million in the US and Canada and US$138 million worldwide.

Michael Jackson’s This Is It (2009) holds the record for total ticket sales. It generated US$105 million over its entire North American run, and US$380 million worldwide, adjusted for inflation.

Box-office analysts are not quite sure what to expect from The Eras Tour, in part because it comes only nine weeks after Swift concluded the six-month, 53-show initial leg of her sold-out North American tour.

Trade publication Pollstar estimated that she had sold about US$14 million in tickets each night.

Complicating predictions, Swift broke Hollywood norms in getting her film to theatres.

Under the customary model, studios book movies into theatres and spend anywhere from US$20 million to US$100 million on marketing to turn out an audience.

Theatres play movies and sell concessions. In return, studios collect as much as 70 per cent of opening-weekend tickets sales, with theatres keeping the balance.

Since she produced and financed The Eras Tour herself, Swift cut out the middle company (a studio) and made a distribution deal directly with AMC Entertainment, the world’s largest theatre operator.

One reason involved marketing: Swift, with 369 million social media followers at her beck and call, barely needs to spend anything to advertise the film.

She will keep about 57 per cent of ticket revenue, with theatre chains pocketing the rest, as first reported by a Puck newsletter.

AMC will also receive a modest distribution fee.

However, most studio executives and entertainment industry analysts dismiss The Eras Tour as a one-off.

When it comes to mobilising a fan base, Swift, they say, is in a class by herself.

Even American pop star Beyonce – who has followed Swift in making a deal with AMC to distribute her Dec 1 concert documentary Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce – has not shown the same selling power.

First-day pre-sales for The Eras Tour totalled an estimated US$37 million, while Renaissance generated about US$7 million.

Swift premiered her film in front of fans and celebrities on Wednesday, shortly after announcing earlier screenings in some markets and additional weekend showtimes would be added due to high interest.

“Look what you genuinely made me do: Due to unprecedented demand, we’re opening up early access showings of The Eras Tour Concert Film on Thursday in America and Canada,” she wrote on social media.

Wearing a strapless pale blue gown at the red-carpet premiere, she posed for wefies with fans who scored a seat in one of 13 auditoriums in an AMC Theatre at an outdoor mall in Los Angeles.

Scattered in the crowd were celebrities including comedian Adam Sandler, actress Mariska Hargitay and actor Simu Liu, who was wearing friendship bracelets on his wrist like many of Swift’s fans.

Beyonce also was in attendance, according to a photo posted by Swift on social media.

Inside the theatre, Swift thanked fans for supporting the Eras Tour and applauded “the amount of care and preparation and passion that you put in, the intensity that you put into coming to these shows”.

“I’ve never had this much fun in my life as I had at the Eras Tour.”

On Thursday, Swift was spotted prior to the start of the Kansas City Chiefs game – the third time the 12-time Grammy winner has attended one of the American football team’s games amid rumours of a relationship with tight end Travis Kelce.

She was shown on the broadcast entering Arrowhead Stadium wearing a red Chiefs jacket and later seated next to Kelce’s mother in a private box ahead of the defending Super Bowl champion’s showdown with the Denver Broncos. NYTIMES, REUTERS