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Trump’s trade war will deter interest rate cuts even as growth risks intensify

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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, March 14, 2025. President Trump’s approach to tariffs has unsettled many corporate leaders who believed he would use the levies as a negotiating tool. As it turns out, he sees them as an end in themselves. (Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times)

US President Donald Trump’s threat to announce broad reciprocal tariffs to match the rates that US exporters face on April 2 may change the calculus.

PHOTO: TIERNEY L CROSS/NYTIMES

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SINGAPORE – An escalating trade conflict between the US and its top trade partners has heightened fears of an economic downturn.

At the same time, the likelihood that tariffs will reinvigorate inflation may force many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to hold back from cutting interest rates.

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