SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) - Rising interest rates and the latest round of property curbs have put the brakes on mortgage demand at Singapore's banks, potentially further dragging down the city's housing market.
Home loan growth slowed to 1.9 per cent in the first 11 months of 2018, less than half the 4.2 per cent increase posted in 2017, the latest Monetary Authority of Singapore data show. Mortgage growth will stay stuck below 2 per cent this year, according to Mr Diksha Gera, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The credit slowdown threatens to further accelerate the decline in residential prices, which fell for the first time in six quarters in the final three months of last year. Housing values may drop as much as 3 per cent this year, and new home sales might plunge 20 per cent, according to Mr Derek Tan, a real estate analyst at DBS Group Holdings.
A surge in housing supply, rising mortgage rates, a China-led economic slowdown and volatile financial markets are all weighing on sentiment, said Mr Royston Foo, an independent property analyst who publishes on Smartkarma.
"I expect the overall property market outlook to be weaker in 2019," Mr Foo said. "Insecurity and bearish sentiment will result in potential buyers holding back purchases and adopting a wait-and-see approach."
The latest property curbs announced in July hit mortgage demand, DBS chief executive officer Piyush Gupta said earlier this month. The bank's Singapore mortgage book grew less than $2.5 billion in 2018, compared to the $4 billion initially anticipated at the start of the year, he said.
Still, the drop in lending growth won't necessarily dent earnings at Singapore's three biggest banks, because recent increases in mortgage rates will buffer interest income. DBS, OCBC Bank and United Overseas Bank have raised home loan rates an average 20 basis points in the past three months to just above 2 per cent, and they may climb to 3 per cent, according to Nomura Holdings analyst Marcus Chua.