SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) - Singapore has an oversupply of private homes that could take years to clear, threatening to kill a nascent price recovery amid an already uncertain economic outlook.
The city-state had an overhang of 31,948 units as of Sept 30, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. Sales have averaged about 2,500 homes per quarter this year, and at that rate it will take almost four years to clear the backlog, according to Ms Christine Li, head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia at Cushman & Wakefield.
The glut has prompted developers to call for property curbs to be eased, including lowering the 20 per cent stamp duty for foreign buyers and getting more time to sell apartments before being hit with punitive levies. The over-supply also threatens to push down prices, the central bank warned last month.
And given the unsure economic outlook, sales might fall between 5 per cent and 10 per cent next year, said Ms Christine Sun, head of research at OrangeTee & Tie. Property prices could still rise, albeit at a slower pace of 1 per cent to 3 per cent, "assuming the economy doesn't deteriorate excessively next year".
The overhang is evident at The Florence Residences in suburban Hougang, about a half-hour subway ride from the popular Orchard Road shopping district. Just 38 per cent of the 1,410 units at the development, which boasts a sparring ring, outdoor cinema, 80m lap pool and rock-climbing wall, have sold since being launched in March.
Competition in the area is fierce. Three other mega-projects within a 20-minute drive have a combined stock of 3,137 units. All up, just 57 per cent of apartments at the four projects have sold.
The glut is more pronounced in outlying suburban areas versus areas closer to downtown, where easy access to top schools, shopping streets and the central business district are draw cards. As of the third quarter, there were 8,917 unsold units in prime districts, compared to 10,538 in suburban areas.
The roots of the current glut, which includes finished apartments and those still under construction, can be traced back to the property boom of 2017-18 and the collective-sale fever that enveloped the city. In a collective sale, a group of owners team up to sell entire apartment blocks to a developer, which then redevelops the site.
"Excessive exuberance" in buying sites en-bloc caused the over-supply, Cushman & Wakefield's Ms Li said. And it would be "unwise" for the Government to bail out developers by easing cooling measures, she said. Instead, stricter limits should be imposed on collective sales to prevent a repeat of the buying frenzy.
"If this precedent of a bailout is set, developers will not exercise restraint in acquiring en-bloc sites in future cycles, flooding the market with supply and relying on the government to rescue them again," she said.
While residential property prices declined after the government imposed a fresh round of curbs in July 2018, they've recently started to creep up again, gaining 1.3 per cent last quarter.
"If the economy stays lacklustre or weakens further and drags down market sentiment, price growth could falter," said Ms Tay Huey Ying, head of research and consultancy at JLL's Singapore office.
As well as winding back hefty stamp duties for foreign buyers and residents buying multiple properties, developers would like to see further concessions, including getting more time to sell projects.
To stop land hoarding, developers have five years from the time of purchase to build and sell all units at a site, or risk being hit with a 25 per cent levy.
"That's a lot of stress for developers," said Mr Chia Ngiang Hong, president of the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore. He would prefer the deadline be extended to seven years for mega-projects of more than 1,000 apartments.
"Five years is too harsh," he said.
The Government isn't budging. Leaders have repeatedly signalled that the curbs won't be eased anytime soon, as they seek to avoid a repeat of the 2010-2013 property boom, when annual house-price growth peaked at 15 per cent.
"It's prudent of Singapore's Government to monitor the domestic residential property market closely for signs of over- or under-heating and calibrate the measures as appropriate to ensure a stable and sustainable market," said JLL's Tay.