Oil rises after Opec+ pauses output hikes beyond December amid glut fears

SINGAPORE - Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Nov 3 after Opec+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, easing rising fears of a supply glut.

Brent crude futures rose 0.73 per cent to US$65.24 a barrel by 7.36am Singapore time. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at US$61.43 a barrel, up 0.74 per cent.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as Opec+, agreed on Nov 2 to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as for October and November.

“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.

RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said: “There is ample ground for a cautious approach, given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness.”

She added that Russia remains a key supply wild card in the wake of the US imposing sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack on Nov 2 struck Tuapse port, one of Russia’s main Black Sea oil ports, causing a fire and damaging at least one ship.

Brent and WTI fell more than 2 per cent for a third straight month in October, hitting a five-month low on Oct 20 on fears of a supply glut and economic concerns about US tariffs.

Analysts are holding their oil price forecasts largely unchanged as rising Opec+ output and lacklustre demand offset geopolitical risks to supply, a Reuters poll showed. Estimates of oil market surplus ranged anywhere from 0.19 to three million barrels per day (bpd). The Energy Information Administration reported on Oct 31 that US crude oil output rose 86,000 bpd to a record 13.8 million bpd in August.

Opec+ has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day – or around 2.7 per cent of global supply – since April, but slowed the pace from October amid predictions of a looming oversupply.

New

Western sanctions on Opec+ member Russia

are adding to challenges in the strategy, as Moscow may struggle to further raise output after the US and Britain imposed new measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil. REUTERS