NEW YORK – A new survey of business economists suggests that job market conditions in the United States are beginning to soften, with firms indicating an easing of labour shortages and a pullback in hiring expectations.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics (Nabe) showed that about a third of respondents say their firms are not facing any labour shortages, and nearly 20 per cent expect employment at their company to fall in the coming months. 

“For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months,” Nabe president Julia Coronado, founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, said in a statement. “Fewer respondents than in recent years expect their firms’ capital spending to increase in the same period.”

Only 12 per cent of those surveyed think headcount will rise in the next three months – less than half the share that said their companies had increased employment over the past three months. The survey of 60 Nabe members was conducted from Jan 4 to Jan 11.

The figures highlight concerns that more companies will begin to shed workers as the impact of higher interest rates works its way through the broader US economy. 

Corporate profit margins are already coming under pressure. Some 40 per cent of respondents said their companies’ margins have declined over the past three months, up from less than a third in the July and October surveys. 

That said, respondents are slightly more optimistic about future profits, with more than half expecting margins to remain unchanged in the next three months, and a smaller share expecting them to decline. 

BLOOMBERG