Major power rivalry cited as biggest risk to global stability in 2026: WEF
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A crane moving shipping containers at a US port. Geoeconomic confrontation – which refers to the use of tools such as tariffs – topped global risks in 2026, a WEF poll said.
PHOTO: AFP
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- Geoeconomic confrontation is the top near-term global risk, potentially triggering crises by disrupting supply chains and economic stability, says WEF.
- Global leaders anticipate a turbulent decade, with economic risks like downturns, inflation, and asset bubbles rising significantly in the rankings.
- Environmental risks remain most severe long-term, while AI's adverse impacts are a growing concern, highlighting the need for global cooperation.
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SINGAPORE – Geoeconomic confrontation has eclipsed all other threats to become the world’s top risk in the near term, according to a survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The warning comes as global leaders and experts polled brace themselves for a decade that they expect will be defined by turbulence, conflict and deepening division.
About 50 per cent of the 1,300 global leaders and experts WEF surveyed on global risk perception anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, an increase from 36 per cent in 2025.
A further 40 per cent expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled, while 9 per cent expect stability and 1 per cent predict calm.
The outlook deteriorates when looking at the next 10 years: 57 per cent expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32 per cent expect things to be unsettled, 10 per cent predict stability and 1 per cent anticipate calm.
Responses to the survey were collected between Aug 12 and Sept 22, 2025.
In its Global Risks Report 2026 released on Jan 14 ahead of its annual meeting at Davos, Switzerland, from Jan 19 to 23, WEF said stability is “under siege” as cooperative mechanisms crumble, with governments retreating from multilateral frameworks.
Instead, a new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their own interests, said Mr Borge Brende, WEF’s president and chief executive officer.
In this multipolar landscape, confrontation is replacing collaboration, and trust – the currency of cooperation – is losing its value, he said.
Geoeconomic confrontation – which refers to the use of tools such as sanctions and tariffs – topped the global risks in 2026
Geoeconomic confrontation, which was also cited as the top risk over the next two years to 2028, threatens supply chains, global economic stability, and the cooperative capacity needed to respond to economic shocks, WEF said.
Economic risks showed the largest increase in ranking over the next two years, albeit from relatively low rankings in 2025.
Economic downturn jumped eight positions to be ranked 11th in terms of global risks. Inflation climbed eight positions too, to 21st. Risks of asset bubble bursting rose seven positions to be ranked 18th.
Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility over the next two years, WEF warned.
Misinformation and disinformation risk ranked second on the two-year outlook, while cyberinsecurity was sixth.
Adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) showed the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security.
Societal polarisation ranked fourth in 2026 and third by 2028. Inequality is in seventh position in the two- and 10-year outlook.
Environmental risks including extreme weather events, pollution and biodiversity loss have declined in ranking in the near-term outlook.
However, over the next 10 years, they have retained their ranking as the most severe risks, with extreme weather events identified as the top risk and half of the top 10 risks being environmental in nature.
Technological risks are anticipated to worsen in severity over the next decade, with adverse outcomes of AI technologies among the risks expected to experience some of the largest increases in severity score.
Ms Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the WEF, said the findings showed that “cooperation is indispensable for global risk management”.
“The challenges highlighted in this report – spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks – underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next,” she said.
