HSBC predicts gold’s ‘bull wave’ to hit US$5,000 an ounce in 2026
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The advance has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising exchange-traded-fund inflows, expectations of US rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainties.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
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- HSBC forecasts gold prices could reach US$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Robust central bank buying, ETF inflows, and expectations of US rate cuts are fuelling the gold rally, supporting the price increase.
- HSBC expects new buyers to remain in the gold market, valuing its diversification and "safe haven" qualities even after the rally.
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BENGALURU - HSBC on Oct 17 forecast that gold’s bull rally would drive prices as high as US$5,000 an ounce in 2026, supported by elevated risks and the impact of new entrants into the market.
Spot gold breached the US$4,300 level on Oct 16 and was headed for its strongest week since December 2008.
The advance has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, robust central bank buying, rising exchange-traded-fund inflows, expectations of US rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainties.
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H 2026, and we could very well reach a high of US$5,000 per ounce some time in 1H 2026,” HSBC said in a research note.
It joins analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale, who earlier in the week forecast that gold could reach US$5,000 an ounce in 2026.
HSBC also raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to US$3,455 per ounce from US$3,355 previously. It increased its 2026 average gold price forecast to US$4,600, up from US$3,950 previously.
The bank cited geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt as factors supporting the price.
HSBC said that, given the sharp rise in prices during the second half of 2025 and heightened risks from new market entrants, it expects gold prices to remain elevated and potentially spike further through early 2026.
But the bank also expects significant volatility and some price moderation in the second half of 2026.
“Unlike previous rallies, we believe many of these new buyers are likely to stay in the gold space – even after the rally ends – not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” HSBC said. REUTERS
