Hong Kong developers’ $76.4 billion rout may deepen as risks mount

Hong Kong - Hong Kong developers’ shares may not be much of a bargain even after suffering a US$56 billion (S$76.4 billion) rout, as the correction in the world’s most unaffordable housing market is still far from over.

A gauge tracking the city’s real estate developers has seen its market value shrink by over a fourth since late January, the worst-performing sector on the MSCI Hong Kong Index. Investors are bracing themselves for more declines as the housing market is struggling with high borrowing costs and the threat of falling home prices.

The market rout has pushed developers’ valuations to extreme levels. Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, two of the city’s largest developers, are cheaper than they were during the Asian financial crisis. Analysts say it is too early to sound the all-clear for these stocks.

“It’s clear that the Hong Kong property market is going south,” said Mr Dickie Wong, director of research at Kingston Securities. So while valuations are attractive, they are “not enough to lure investors when companies have diminishing earnings prospects and lower payout ratios”.

Home prices in the Asian financial hub have dropped

18 per cent from a record high in 2021 to the lowest in more than six years, hammered by rising mortgage rates and sluggish economic recovery. Societe Generale is expecting another 10 per cent to 15 per cent decline in 2024 as interest rates continue to deter buyers.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is expected to relax some key property curbs in his annual address in October. The city levies a 15 per cent stamp duty for local residents buying a second home. But investors remain sceptical.

“Even if there is policy easing, it should only be of partial support to the developers as they will still struggle in a high-rate environment,” said Mr Andy Wong, a fund manager at LW Asset Management Advisors in Hong Kong.

Developers are expected to cut their dividends to cope with rising financing costs and slower revenue growth. Sun Hung Kai said it plans to lower its payout ratio to 40 per cent to 50 per cent of underlying profit from 60 per cent in 2022, while a reduction in New World Development sent its shares to a 20-year low last week.

“Their dividends are at risk of falling due to a potential profit slump on rising interest costs, and lower home prices and office rents,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Patrick Wong wrote in September. BLOOMBERG