Gold declines as traders weigh prospects for interest rate hike
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox
Bullion fell as much as 0.8 per cent to near US$4,040 an ounce.
PHOTO: REUTERS
- Gold prices fell nearly 0.8 per cent as traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision amid mixed inflation signals and Middle East tensions.
- There is about a 40 per cent chance of a quarter-point rate hike, with some analysts saying a hike would boost Fed credibility and the US dollar.
- Despite a 25 per cent drop since the US-Iran conflict began, gold remains near US$4,000 an ounce, supported by dip-buying and hopes for peace talks progress.
AI generated
Gold declined ahead of a potentially divisive decision on US interest rates later this week, while a fragile pause in Middle East hostilities soothed inflation fears.
Bullion fell as much as 0.8 per cent to near US$4,040 an ounce, erasing a modest gain in the previous session.
Traders are positioning themselves for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on July 29, with policymakers torn between June’s tamer-than-expected inflation reading and the more recent rise in oil prices that accompanied a flare-up in fighting between the US and Iran.
Interest rate swaps imply about a 40 per cent chance of a quarter-point increase, an unusually high degree of uncertainty so close to a Fed decision by the standards of recent years.
Citadel Securities said it expects a hike this week, a move it argues would strengthen Fed chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the battle with inflation.
“Even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged, a hawkish message or a clear signal that further tightening remains under consideration could lend support to real yields and the US dollar, temporarily capping gold’s recovery,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist with OCBC Bank.
Gold is down by nearly a quarter since the US-Iran war began five months ago, with high energy prices stoking inflationary pressures.
However, the metal has held near the key support level of US$4,000 an ounce since late June, bolstered by a wave of dip-buying. Bullion-backed exchange-traded funds added holdings for five straight days – the longest streak of gains since May.
The most recent developments in the Middle East have added further support. US President Donald Trump said on July 27 that the US and Iran were once more in talks to end the war, with both sides having paused strikes in recent days.
Trump said there is “a good chance that something could happen” regarding a deal, while adding that a return to fighting is likely if negotiations fail.
The expectation of higher rates is keeping gold under pressure, however, according to analysts from Shenzhen-based Zhishui Investment Management. “Upward price action in recent days lacks momentum and is showing some hesitation,” they wrote in a note.
Spot gold slipped 0.7 per cent to US$4,047.22 an ounce at 10.25am in Singapore. Silver fell 1.7 per cent to US$57.39 an ounce. Platinum and palladium also traded lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, rose marginally. BLOOMBERG
