Will the upcoming HDB super high-rise in Pearl’s Hill outshine Pinnacle@Duxton?

SINGAPORE - In central Singapore, the Pinnacle@Duxton stands out in three ways: it is the only Housing Board project in the city centre under 20 years old, it is the tallest by far at 50 storeys, and boasts an architectural feat – its seven towers are connected by two of the world’s longest skybridges.

For these reasons, among others, this one-of-a-kind landmark next to the Central Business District has enjoyed robust resale price growth in the past decade – clocking the most million-dollar flat sales for a single public housing project between 2015 and 2025.

But will this still be the case when the central area gets a new HDB super high-rise in Pearl’s Hill – at over 60 storeys high and just a stone’s throw away?

The Pearl’s Hill project, announced on March 4, will be the first public housing development on the hill in Outram Park in more than four decades. It will house about 1,700 two-room flexi, three- and four-room flats and 140 public rental units.

Resale price growth at Pinnacle@Duxton is unlikely to slow significantly in the short to medium term, said Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore.

This is because the Pearl’s Hill flats, expected to be classified as Prime, will enter the resale market only after 2040, or at least 15 years after their sale launch.

Another Build-To-Order (BTO) project under construction in the central area – River Peaks I and II in Rochor, which comprise 960 units – is expected to be completed in mid-2028. Classified as Prime flats, they will likely enter the resale market in 2038.

“So, the supply of newer resale flats in the city centre could remain limited for at least the next decade,” Mr Lim said.

Pearl’s Hill resale restrictions could cap exuberance

Another factor that could keep buyers and sellers from being overly exuberant about Pearl’s Hill resale flats is the resale restrictions that will apply, analysts say.

If the Pearl’s Hill project is classified as Prime, it will come with tighter sale conditions, including a 10-year minimum occupation period (MOP) and – in the light of its location premium in the city centre – significantly higher subsidy clawback rates because the Government may have to provide substantially higher subsidies to keep flat prices affordable.

In addition, resale buyers of Prime flats will be limited to households that meet the HDB income ceiling – currently $14,000 a month for couples and families – as part of restrictions to keep homes affordable and ensure fairness.

Another consideration is the fact that Pinnacle@Duxton, now 16 years old, will be more than 30 years old by the time Pearl’s Hill hits the resale market, and may be ripe for the Home Improvement Programme, which typically takes place about 30 years after flats are built and help preserve housing values.

Will the 1,848-unit project be able to bank on its advantages over the Pearl’s Hill development – such as a shorter MOP of five years and no subsidy clawback – to boost its resale value?

A five-room flat sold for a record $1.6 million in August 2025, while a four-room flat moved at $1.518 million in March 2025. These were among 367 million-dollar flat transactions at the Pinnacle@Duxton between 2015 and 2025, with the average prices of its four-room and five-room flats growing by about 4.7 per cent annually, according to ERA Singapore.

A win-win situation

Professor Sing Tien Foo, provost’s chair professor of real estate at NUS Business School, believes both projects will attract buyers to the downtown area, and reinforce each other in price growth.

“The two projects are not perfectly substitutable in terms of their age, location, flat mix and types, and thus interest in Pearl’s Hill flats could generate positive spillover to resale prices at Pinnacle@Duxton,” he said.

Timing is everything

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, believes that the timing of the Pearl’s Hill’s launch could affect resale flat price growth at Pinnacle@Duxton.

If Pearl’s Hill is launched in the next two years, buyers seeking new Central area flats may decide to hold out instead of buying at Pinnacle@Duxton.

“The drop in demand may cause prices at Pinnacle@Duxton to stagnate or grow at a slower pace,” Ms Sun said.

But if the launch were to take place four to five years later, buyers who do not want to wait that long for a newer city centre flat will likely move ahead with buying at Pinnacle@Duxton, which could continue to fuel resale price growth there, she added.

Ms Sun also noted that gains may be capped by the fact that Pinnacle@Duxton flats are getting older and new BTOs are continually being launched in many choice locations, including the city fringe and near MRT stations.

“Buyers may get these new flats instead, even if these are not in the downtown core,” she said.

Regardless of what the market dynamics are when the Pearl’s Hill flats hit the resale market, the fact remains that these two iconic public housing projects each have attributes that should enable them to hold their value over time.

Even at over 30 years of age, Pinnacle@Duxton’s iconic flats will still be relatively young and come with fewer sale curtailments compared with Pearl’s Hill.

If history is any indication, older flats in prime or mature locations in Singapore often hold their value, and, in some cases, even continue to appreciate despite their ageing leases.