US consumer prices rise more than expected in December, weekly jobless claims fall

WASHINGTON – Consumer prices in the United States increased more than expected in December as rents maintained their upward trend, which could delay a much anticipated interest rate cut in March from the Federal Reserve.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 per cent in December after nudging up 0.1 per cent in November, the Labour Department’s Bureau of Labour Statistics said on Jan 11. The cost of shelter accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI.

In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4 per cent after

climbing 3.1 per cent in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2 per cent on the month and rising 3.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Since slowing to an annual increase of 3 per cent in June 2023, further progress towards lower consumer inflation has been limited by persistently high rents. The annual increase in consumer prices has cooled from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022.

The report followed news on Jan 5 that the economy

added 216,000 jobs in December,

with annual wage growth picking up.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3 per cent in December after increasing 0.3 per cent in November. The so-called core CPI advanced 3.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 4 per cent in November.

Though consumer prices remain elevated, measures tracked by the US central bank for its 2 per cent inflation target improved significantly through much of 2023, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index posting its first monthly decline in more than 3½ years in November.

Rents, which account for a larger share of the CPI basket, have a smaller weighting in the PCE price index, which will be published later in January.

Early on Jan 11, financial markets

saw a roughly 69 per cent chance of a rate cut

at the Fed’s March 19 to 20 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent range since March 2022.

With the resilient labour market keeping wage growth elevated, some economists expect a rate cut in May or June.

The labour market is easing, but only gradually as layoffs remain low by historical norms. In a separate report on Jan 11, the Labour Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Jan 6. Economists had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.

Claims data tends to be volatile at the start of the year.

Filings remain in the lower end of the 194,000 to 265,000 range that prevailed in 2023.

Employers are hoarding workers, following difficulties finding labour in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, keeping a recession at bay.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped by 34,000 to 1.834 million during the week ended Dec 30, the claims report showed.

The so-called continuing claims have mostly increased since mid-September, a trend blamed mainly on difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations, after an unprecedented surge in filings early in the pandemic.

Economists expect the distortion will be smoothed out when the government revises the data in 2024. REUTERS