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The global economy’s warning signals are broken
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From markets to spending to debt, usually reliable indicators that forecast where the economy is headed are proving deeply fallible.
ILLUSTRATION: KYLE ELLINGSON/NYTIMES
Patricia Cohen
- Economic forecasts are unreliable due to unpredictable human behaviour and global changes, as highlighted by the World Bank.
- Consumer spending and the stock market remain strong despite economic gloom, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions.
- Traditional recession indicators like unemployment and yield curves have failed, due to structural changes and policy shifts.
AI generated
LONDON – The general bewilderment that bedevils the economic mandarins these days was captured by a recent World Bank note: “Global Growth Defies Expectations.”
Forecasts that turn out to be wrong – or defy expectations – are as routine as a heartbeat.
