There is some light at the end of the tunnel for Singapore retail sales, with the reopening of shops and resumption of dining in at food and beverage outlets.
Although retail sales in June fell, this was at a slower pace than in the month before, according to data from the Department of Statistics yesterday.
Takings at the till slid 27.8 per cent compared with the same period last year, after sinking a record 52 per cent in May.
Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 24.2 per cent.
This is on the back of the gradual reopening of the economy, as Singapore entered phase one of the easing of the circuit breaker restrictions on June 2 and phase two on June 19.
Year on year, retail sales slumped for the 17th straight month in June.
But compared with May, seasonally adjusted retail sales recorded a huge upswing of 51.1 per cent, indicating retail sales may have bottomed out.
Experts, however, cautioned that any recovery will be modest owing to continued economic challenges.
Maybank Kim Eng economist Lee Ju Ye said: "The big jump in month-on-month numbers for discretionary items suggests there has been some pent-up consumer demand following the circuit breaker period.
"Movements at retail and recreation venues have also improved as of end-July compared with end-June, as the number of community Covid-19 cases has stayed low and more people gain confidence to venture out."
But retail is not out of the woods, she added, with the economy in recession, the labour market seeing large losses and household incomes falling. "Consumer sentiments will likely remain subdued for the rest of the year, which will weigh on big-ticket purchases and discretionary items."
In June, sales were lifted by supermarkets and hypermarkets, which continued to register strong takings that shot up 43.4 per cent year on year.
Computer and telecommunications equipment retailers also saw sales going up by 20.9 per cent, with burgeoning demand from consumers working from home.
Minimarts and convenience stores had higher sales of 8.7 per cent.
But all other categories registered double-digit drops year on year, with department stores bearing the brunt as their sales plunged 69.5 per cent.
Sales of wearing apparel and footwear dived 63.4 per cent, while takings from watches and jewellery retailers fell 53.5 per cent.
Motor vehicle sales tumbled 47.8 per cent, and those of food and alcohol dropped 45.7 per cent.
Meanwhile, sales of food and beverage (F&B) services slid by 43.5 per cent in June. All categories registered drops, with restaurants leading the way with a fall of 59 per cent.
Takings for food caterers shrank by 48.1 per cent, while sales at cafes, foodcourts and other eating places dwindled by 32.7 per cent.
Fast-food outlets registered a 20.5 per cent contraction in sales.
The total sales value of F&B services in June was estimated at $496 million. Of this, online F&B sales made up an estimated 32.7 per cent.
The estimated total retail sales value in June was about $2.6 billion. Of this, online retail sales made up an estimated 18.1 per cent.
OCBC Bank head of treasury research and strategy Selena Ling said there should be improvement in the months ahead, but it will not be a straightforward recovery.
"Consumption is very tied to consumer confidence. If they're not confident about job security, wage increases and bonus expectations, they're not going to rush out for big-ticket items.
"Globally, the resurgence in Covid-19 cases means... we are not going to get international travellers coming back here," she added.
However, United Overseas Bank economist Barnabas Gan said: "Barring a reintroduction of social distancing measures, the return of domestic consumer demand should help to cushion the rate of contraction on a year-on-year perspective for the rest of 2020."
