Resilient demand for electronics and a low base last year helped deliver a surprise lift to non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) and put them back on track to defy the general economic downturn.

Nodx jumped 16.1 per cent in June from the same month last year, when a decline of 17 per cent was recorded. That low base was in part responsible for the robust figures released yesterday.

The performance beat the consensus forecast for an 8 per cent gain from analysts polled by Bloomberg and a 6.2 per cent increase in a Reuters poll.

Nodx rose 0.5 per cent last month on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 4.6 per cent decline in May, Enterprise Singapore (ESG) noted.

That revised 4.6 per cent year-on-year fall in May, which was the first drop in four months, was one that confounded experts who had tipped a 1 per cent increase. It was also a stark reversal from the 9.7 per cent increase in April.

Shipments had risen in February and March as well, despite the plunge in global demand for goods because of the pandemic.

Ms Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at OCBC Bank, said first-half Nodx growth is off to a positive start with 6 per cent year-on-year increase, notwithstanding the impact of the pandemic and Singapore's circuit breaker.

"The June Nodx data suggests that the worst may be over, but do not expect the double-digit Nodx growth momentum to be sustained into the second half," she added.

"The road ahead is yet to be completely smooth sailing, as external risks remain, namely with the second Covid-19 waves of infections seen to be slowing down the pace of re-openings in Hong Kong and some US states, for example."

She noted that there is also a "need for continued generous life support from major central banks and policymakers to keep business and consumer confidence on a more stable footing".

Mr Prakash Sakpal, senior economist at ING Bank in Singapore, called last month's figures "a substantial upside surprise".

But he added that hopes of an economic rebound should be tamed after the Monetary Authority of Singapore on Thursday warned of a slow and uneven recovery ahead.

Ms Ling said that barring a return to lockdowns around the globe, which appears less likely, full-year 2020 Nodx growth is likely to be positive, outperforming the ESG forecast of minus 1 to minus 4 per cent year on year.

United Overseas Bank economist Barnabas Gan upgraded his 2020 Nodx forecast from minus 1 per cent to 4 per cent.

"The upgrade is in view of the relatively strong performance in Nodx in the first half as well as on expectations for Singapore's economic fundamentals to improve into the second half," he said.

Electronics Nodx expanded by 22.2 per cent last month following the 12.4 per cent increase in May.

The gain was led by shipments of disk media products, which shot up by 59.8 per cent, followed by a 37.8 per cent lift in telecommunications equipment and the 29.1 per cent increase for integrated circuits.

MayBank Kim Eng economist Chua Hak Bin said electronics is benefiting from rising demand in data centres and cloud services while the pandemic is driving companies to adopt new technologies so employees can work from home.

Dr Chua expects the low base effects from the electronics downturn last year will keep shipments positive in this half: "We think Nodx will rise by around 3 to 5 per cent in 2020, reversing the 9.2 per cent decline in 2019."

Non-electronic Nodx grew by 14.5 per cent year on year last month, after May's 9 per cent drop.

Exports of non-monetary gold swelled by 238 per cent, specialised machinery rose 45.9 per cent and pharmaceuticals clocked a 30.8 per cent gain.

Shipments of pharmaceuticals, which are typically volatile, dropped by 31.2 per cent in May.

ESG said non-monetary gold exports have been helped by the increase in demand for physical gold as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty and the pandemic.

Exports to Singapore's top markets as a whole grew last month, with the largest contributions coming from shipments to Japan (up 94.7 per cent), led by pharmaceuticals, synthetic rubber and waste, and personal computers.

Exports to South Korea rose 85.6 per cent, mainly of specialised machinery, measuring instruments and integrated circuits.

But exports to Hong Kong, Indonesia and Thailand declined.

Total trade fell over the year last month, with both exports and imports decreasing. On a year-on-year basis, total trade declined by 6.6 per cent, easing from the 25 per cent contraction in May.