Singapore’s factory output growth slows to 5.9% in April as tariffs cloud trade outlook

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s manufacturing output grew at a slower pace in April from a month ago as pharmaceutical production dropped amid continuing uncertainty in the Republic’s trade outlook.

April’s factory production rose 5.9 per cent from a year ago, down from 6.8 per cent growth in March, according to monthly data from the Economic Development Board (EDB) on May 26. EDB upwardly revised the March growth rate from 5.8 per cent.

Still, April’s factory output growth easily topped the 2.5 per cent increase forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll – with front-loading driving up key electronics production.

Excluding volatile biomedical manufacturing, which shrank 1.1 per cent, output rose 8.1 per cent in April.

Within the biomedical industry, medical technology output grew 4.9 per cent on the back of sustained export demand for medical devices.

However, this was more than offset by a 1.6 per cent drop for the larger pharmaceuticals segment, on account of a different mix of active pharmaceutical ingredients being produced compared with a year ago.

For the first four months of 2025, biomedical output declined 0.5 per cent year on year.

The result for biomedical manufacturing comes amid an unsure trade outlook as Singapore looks to negotiate for zero tariffs on pharmaceutical exports to the United States.

Pharmaceutical shipments make up over 10 per cent of Singapore’s exports to the US.

The Trump administration unilaterally imposed a 10 per cent “baseline” tariff on most Singapore goods entering the US from April 5, which remains in force notwithstanding a 90-day pause on additional tariffs some other economies have been subject to.

In the key electronics sector, output grew 15.2 per cent. Infocommunications and consumer electronics notched 67.8 per cent growth, while semiconductor output was up 11.7 per cent.

This brought output growth for electronics production to 10.5 per cent for the first four months of 2025, compared with the same period a year ago.

DBS economist Chua Han Teng noted that manufacturing output expanded for the 10th consecutive month in April 2025.

Although half of the key manufacturing clusters saw year-on-year expansion in a mixed performance, the key electronics cluster sustained double-digit expansion for the second consecutive month, he said.

The cluster accounts for 37.4 per cent of overall factory output.

Mr Chua added that the robust electronics output growth in April broadly aligned with the accelerated expansion of electronics domestic exports during the same period.

This reflects still-resilient global chips demand and possibly some front-loading of orders due to a temporary US tariff exemption on electronics imports, including semiconductors, he said.

Mr Chua also noted that any front-loading of exports, in which trading partners buy more before any tariffs kick in, would eventually show in decelerating trade and industrial production come the second half of 2025.

“Significant uncertainties persist regarding ongoing US tariff negotiations and the possibility of US import duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical products,” he said.

In the precision engineering industry, production grew 1.6 per cent in April. The precision modules and components segment increased 11.7 per cent, supported by higher output of plastic precision components, electronic connectors and optical instruments. But the machinery and systems segment fell 0.4 per cent, led by lower output of measuring devices.

In the transport engineering industry, output jumped 22.9 per cent year on year in April, driven by a 39.5 per cent expansion in the aerospace segment with more maintenance, repair and overhaul jobs from commercial airlines.

Conversely, chemicals output shrank 3.2 per cent. The other chemicals segment grew 4.1 per cent, supported by higher output of fragrances. However, it shrank 3.4 per cent for petrochemicals, 4.6 per cent for petroleum and 5.7 per cent for speciality chemicals. 

General manufacturing tumbled 15.2 per cent, with all segments recording declines. Output in the food, beverages and tobacco segment contracted 9.4 per cent, while the printing segment shrank 1.7 per cent and the miscellaneous industries segment fell 25 per cent.

Month on month and seasonally adjusted, manufacturing output increased 5.3 per cent in April from March, and 4.7 per cent excluding biomedical manufacturing.