Singapore key exports set to exceed 2025 forecast, with 11.6% gain in November

SINGAPORE – Analysts said Singapore’s key exports are set to exceed official estimates in 2025, though their growth could moderate in 2026 from the lagged impacts of US tariffs and a slowing artificial intelligence-driven tech cycle.

This is after non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) rose 11.6 per cent in November, driven mainly by volatile pharmaceutical shipments and electronic products like semiconductors and PCs.

November’s performance was down from a revised 21.7 per cent expansion in October, but still exceeded the 6.8 per cent rise forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll.

“Singapore’s exports performed better than feared in 2025,” said DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng. “This was due to the staggered rollout of US tariffs over the course of the year, while these trade restrictions turned out to be not as blanket and burdensome than initially feared.”

For the first 11 months of 2025, Nodx rose 4.8 per cent, Enterprise Singapore said on Dec 17.

The trade agency in November narrowed its 2025 full-year growth forecast for Nodx to around 2.5 per cent, from its previous forecast range of 1 to 3 per cent. It also forecast that the growth in key exports would moderate in 2026 to 0 to 2 per cent as tariff impact materialises and front-loading eases.

Mr Chua said: “In 2026, we expect Singapore’s exports momentum to be restrained in tandem with a weaker global trade cycle.”

He also said that 2026 might see the lagged impact from higher tariffs globally, the risks of additional semiconductor levies and the unwinding of front-loading.

Oxford Economics senior economist Sheana Yue said: “Fading artificial intelligence (AI)-led electronics upswing could be balanced by some resilience in re-exports, keeping export volumes growing by 2 per cent in 2026 despite slowing from an estimated 6.9 per cent this year.”

She noted that a key factor for Singapore’s exports is the AI-driven tech cycle, which is expected to slow from 2025’s surge amid global power and network constraints and emerging signs that hyperscalers are shifting from cash to debt financing.

“The boost from electronics ... is therefore likely to fade next year,” she said.

But Ms Yue said that China’s ambition to lean hard on exports and its deepening integration into regional supply chains also means intra-Asian trade should remain robust.

“Growing friction between China and the rest of the world suggests more shipments from China will pass through Asia, particularly Asean. Given Singapore’s status as an established re-exporting hub, re-exports could stay resilient,” she said.

For November, electronic exports rose 13.1 per cent year on year, following a 33.1 per cent expansion in the previous month.

Shipments of integrated circuits, or chips, climbed 22.9 per cent. The export of personal computers increased by 48 per cent. Bare printed circuit boards’ exports rose 26.8 per cent.

Non-electronic exports grew 11.1 per cent in November, after an 18.1 per cent expansion in the previous month.

Pharmaceuticals exports soared 369.8 per cent, followed by pumps with 361.2 per cent. Shipments of non-electric engines and motors were up 123.2 per cent.

Despite uncertainty and tariffs, exports to the United States surged 106 per cent in November, after a 12.5 per cent contraction in the preceding month.

This was mainly due to an uptick in exports in pharmaceuticals, structures of ships and boats, and personal computers.

DBS’ Mr Chua said the surge in pharma exports was partly due to favourable base effects, while a delay in the implementation of 100 per cent US tariffs on branded or patented pharmaceutical products likely also provided temporary relief and a positive backdrop for drugs exporters.

As for Singapore’s other top 10 export markets, shipments to the Eurozone expanded by 66.3 per cent in November, while those to Taiwan rose 15.7 per cent. However, exports to Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand fell.

Maybank analyst Chua Hak Bin is optimistic that Singapore’s exports will remain firm going forward.

“With the fog of uncertainty from tariffs clearing, we expect Singapore’s exports and re-export trade volumes to remain resilient in 2026,” he said.

“There has been no payback from fears of frontloading since the reciprocal tariffs were imposed in early August. We find that there has been limited frontloading and restocking in the US since April this year, which should ease the fears of any payback.”

He noted that the threatened measures on semiconductors and branded pharmaceuticals by the US lack concrete timelines.

Most multinational corporation (MNC) producers in Singapore, which account for the dominant share of output, are investing in manufacturing capacity in the US and are likely to be exempted from any fresh tariffs, Maybank’s Dr Chua added.

The bank forecasts Nodx to expand around 5 per cent in 2026, above the official estimates.

“The AI capital expenditure boom, easing monetary conditions and expansionary fiscal policies globally will support global growth and trade in 2026,” he said.