Singapore factory output rises 1% in November, missing forecasts

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s factory output grew in November for a second month but fell short of expectations, largely due to a significant deceleration in electronics, as well as contractions in biomedical production and precision engineering.

Total manufacturing production rose 1 per cent year on year, slowing sharply from October’s revised 7.6 per cent growth and missing the 2.2 per cent increase expected by analysts in a Bloomberg poll.

While most sectors decelerated from the previous month, chemicals was a bright spot. It improved to finish the month up 2.7 per cent year on year. This was aided by two of its segments – speciality and other chemicals.

Meanwhile, the electronics sector – which accounts for about 45 per cent of local manufacturing production – saw activity slow to 7.3 per cent, down from a 15.1 per cent expansion from the previous month.

This was led by a sharp slowdown in semiconductor output, which decelerated to post 8.2 per cent growth for November.

Helping to mitigate the electronics sector slowdown, however, was the infocommunications and consumer electronics segment, which snapped back to 13.9 per cent, after having stagnated at zero growth in the period before.

Among the sectors that contracted was precision engineering, which tumbled to end November at minus 14.1 per cent.

The fall was led by the machinery and systems segment, which dropped by 14.5 per cent, while precision modules and components added further drag, as the segment slid 12.7 per cent.

There was also a fall in biomedical activity. This sector fell by 0.7 per cent, after expanding 5.3 per cent in October.

In particular, the pharmaceuticals segment retreated to close November at negative 6 per cent. Although medical technology expanded by 7.1 per cent, it had slowed from the previous period.

Meanwhile, transport engineering posted a 7.2 per cent year-on-year growth, slipping from 13.2 per cent previously.

The weakness was in the aerospace segment, which fell to minus 0.1 per cent in November, from an expansion of 17.1 per cent in October, while the land segment continued to struggle as it contracted 15.3 per cent despite a small improvement.

In comparison, the marine and offshore engineering segment expanded 27.9 per cent, supported by a higher level of activity in shipyards, as well as increased production in oil and gas field equipment.

General manufacturing also slowed, posting a 3.2 per cent growth in November from a year ago.

The food, beverages and tobacco segment was buoyant, growing 12.4 per cent, largely due to more beverages produced.

But this was offset by continued weakness in printing, which contracted 8.5 per cent, as well as a drop in the miscellaneous industries segment, which declined 6.2 per cent owing to fewer batteries made.

Commenting on the data, Maybank economist Brian Lee said the weaker manufacturing growth in November was consistent with muted non-oil domestic exports.

“Nonetheless, the data continues to paint a positive picture of emerging green shoots,” he said, adding that “growth continues to be led by electronics in the face of a gradual recovery in global demand”.

Focusing on transport engineering, Mr Lee said the muted growth was largely due to a “high year-ago base”.

“Overall, we will continue to see stronger manufacturing growth in 2024, on the back of a pickup in global electronics demand. Base effects will also play a part, given the sharp manufacturing contractions in 2023,” he said.

In comparison, UOB senior economist Alvin Liew expects the first half of 2024 to “remain fundamentally weak”, citing still-elevated interest rates, ongoing stresses in China’s property sector and geopolitical hot spots as key factors dampening external demand.

Signs of a broader recovery in manufacturing could emerge towards the middle of 2024, as moderating inflation induces an easing in interest rates, which in turn will support both consumption and investment activity, he added.