Singapore expects key exports to come in at lower end of 1% to 3% growth forecast for 2025

SINGAPORE - Singapore expects growth in key exports to come in at the lower end of its 1 per cent to 3 per cent forecast in 2025 due to developments on the trade and tariff fronts clouding the global outlook.

Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) grew 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, extending the 2.4 per cent expansion recorded in the last quarter of 2024.

“Notwithstanding the recent US-China trade tension de-escalation, downside risks could intensify following the expiration of the 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve,” Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on May 22.

“These include weaker-than-expected demand from key partners and moderation of growth in key products.”

The trade agency noted that although the 2025 external outlook has weakened amid tariff and trade policy uncertainty, it remains supportive of growth.

The International Monetary Fund expected the global economy to grow 2.8 per cent in 2025, and growth is expected across Singapore’s key trade partners, including China, the US, the EU-27 and Asean-5, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, besides Singapore.

In the first quarter of 2025, Singapore’s non-electronics exports rose 1.8 per cent, reversing a 0.7 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

The increase was led by a 637.4 per cent surge in shipments of structures of ships and boats, followed by an 86.5 per cent rise in non-monetary gold, and an 11.5 per cent increase in measuring instruments.

Singapore’s electronics exports grew 9.5 per cent, easing from the 14.2 per cent expansion in the previous quarter. Growth was driven by personal computers, disk media products and integrated circuits.

Shipments of key exports to the US, Taiwan and Hong Kong grew 19.2 per cent, 55.5 per cent and 24.7 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025.

OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling said the stronger-than-expected 3.3 per cent Nodx growth in the first quarter was likely due to front-loading, led by a 9.5 per cent rise in electronics exports.

The 19.2 per cent jump in shipments to the US was likely driven by concerns over potential tariffs, she added.

“It could well be a story of two halves, with front-loading in the first half of 2025, followed by a deceleration in the second half,” said Ms Ling.

“Non-oil domestic exports growth could contract year on year as early as the third quarter.”

Total merchandise trade increased by 4.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Total imports rose 6.4 per cent, while total exports grew by 3.6 per cent.

Growth in exports was driven by non-oil exports at 6.7 per cent, while oil exports declined by 10 per cent.

In the first quarter of 2025, Singapore’s economy grew 3.9 per cent, a tad higher than an earlier estimate of 3.8 per cent made in April.

DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng noted that global trade frictions remain elevated and are expected to weigh on Singapore’s export performance in 2025, albeit less severely than previously anticipated.

Still, front-loading of exports in the first half of 2025 will likely be followed by a slowdown in trade and production in the second half.

“Significant uncertainties regarding US tariff negotiations and possible US import duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical products remain,” noted Mr Chua.