Singapore cuts 2024 key exports forecast again on weaker-than-expected recovery
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Volatile segments such as pharmaceuticals could continue to weigh on Singapore's export performance for the rest of 2024.
PHOTO: ST FILE
Elysia Tan
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SINGAPORE – Singapore has cut its 2024 full-year forecast for key exports on a worse-than-expected recovery in the second half of 2024.
This is primarily due to volatile segments that could continue to drag fourth-quarter performance, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said in its latest quarterly review of trade performance released on Nov 22.
Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) are now expected to grow around 1 per cent year on year in 2024, down from August’s forecast of a 4 per cent to 5 per cent expansion. The official estimate had also been downgraded in that review, from growth of 4 per cent to 6 per cent.
This comes after October’s Nodx performance came in weaker than expected
Referencing its August quarterly review, EnterpriseSG on Nov 22 noted that it had highlighted that “downside risks, including a weaker-than-expected recovery in the second half-year could potentially lead growth for the year to come in below the forecast range”.
“Since then, the weakness has materialised, as Nodx performed weaker than expected, primarily due to volatile segments such as pharmaceuticals and ships and boats, which could continue to weigh on Q4 2024 performance,” it said.
Total merchandise trade is also projected to grow by around 5 per cent, narrowed from the previous forecast of a 5 per cent to 6 per cent rise. This earlier forecast had also been revised from a 4 per cent to 6 per cent expansion in August.
For 2025, Nodx is expected to grow by 1 per cent to 3 per cent, in line with the World Trade Organisation’s projections of faster global merchandise trade growth in 2025 than in 2024.
For the third quarter of 2024, key exports rose 9.2 per cent year on year, reversing from the previous quarter’s 6.5 per cent decline.
Electronic exports grew faster, up 17 per cent year on year and marking the second consecutive quarter of growth. Integrated circuits, disk media products and PCs contributed most to the rise.
Non-electronic Nodx, meanwhile, rebounded after two quarters of declines. It grew 7 per cent, in a turnaround from the previous quarter’s 9.2 per cent drop, led by specialised machinery, non-monetary gold and food preparations.
Shipments to Singapore’s top markets expanded as a whole in the third quarter, with Malaysia, China and the US being the biggest contributors.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, third-quarter Nodx grew by 7.9 per cent, in an about-turn from the second quarter’s 1.3 per cent contraction.
Total merchandise trade grew 5.5 per cent year on year in the third quarter, slowing from the 10 per cent rise in the preceding quarter.
Oil trade slipped by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, reversing from the 16.9 per cent expansion in the second quarter. Non-oil trade rose by 8 per cent, a tad lower than the 8.4 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, total merchandise trade decreased by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter, after a 2 per cent rise in the second quarter.
Total services trade expanded by 13.9 per cent year on year in the third quarter to $235 billion, following the 11.4 per cent rise in the previous quarter. THE BUSINESS TIMES
