Singapore core inflation rises to 1.2% in October, highest rate recorded in 2025

SINGAPORE - Singapore’s consumer prices accelerated in October, driven by higher inflation in services, food, retail and other goods, according to official data released on Nov 24.

Core inflation, which excludes private transport and accommodation costs to better represent household expenses, rose from

0.4 per cent in September

to 1.2 per cent in October.

The reading is markedly higher than the 0.7 per cent forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll, and the highest rate recorded since December 2024.

Services inflation surged from 0.3 per cent in September to 1.8 per cent in October.

“Services inflation picked up due to a faster pace of increase in health insurance costs, as well as a rise in healthcare services costs and holiday expenses,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said.

Inflation in food, retail and other goods edged slightly higher, while electricity and gas prices saw a smaller decline.

Overall inflation rose from 0.7 cent in September to 1.2 per cent in October, boosted by a larger increase in private transport prices and higher core inflation.

Accommodation inflation eased over the same period, because of a slower pace of increase in housing rents.

DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng told The Straits Times that Singapore’s inflation trended up in October after bottoming out in August, meaning it had reached its lowest point in the current economic cycle.

He said: “Both headline and core inflation edged up to 1.2 per cent year on year, marking their highest rates since January 2025 and December 2024 respectively.

“However, at below 2 per cent, both metrics remained contained and consistent with domestic price stability.”

OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling said the “unexpectedly larger jump” in inflation underscores why the MAS chose to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its July and October 2025 reviews.

The MAS had loosened its monetary policy parameters earlier in 2025 because of growth concerns from tariffs.

Ms Ling expects that the MAS will continue to leave monetary policy on hold at its next review in January 2026.

“That said, it is not a case where MAS has to revert to a tightening bias at this juncture. There are clearly two-way inflation risks from here and the reminder of upside supply shocks due to geopolitical developments, as well as downside risks from a sharper-than-expected softening in global demand,” she added.

MAS and MTI reiterated that core inflation is still projected to come in at around 0.5 per cent in 2025, and between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent in 2026.

Overall inflation is expected to average 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent in 2025, and 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2026, they said.

They cited several factors that should keep inflation within their forecasts, including expectations that Singapore’s imported costs will decline, albeit at a slower pace, in the months ahead.

Global crude oil prices are projected to continue to fall in 2026, although at a more gradual pace than in 2025.

Meanwhile, unit labour cost, which measures the average cost of labour per unit of output, is expected to increase. Private consumption demand is expected to remain steady.

MAS and MTI noted that the inflation outlook is subject to uncertainties.

They said: “Supply shocks, including those stemming from geopolitical developments, could lift some imported costs abruptly. However, a sharper-than-expected weakening in global demand could keep core inflation lower for longer.

“Another significant decline in global oil prices could also temporarily tamp down the pace of price increases.”