ISTANBUL (BLOOMBERG) - The shockwaves in global crop markets from Russia's invasion of Ukraine are now spreading to store shelves.
Russia and Ukraine are vital suppliers of grains, vegetable oil and fertilisers, which means that supply disruptions are being felt all over the world.
Worries about surging sunflower oil prices triggered heavy buying over the weekend in Turkey, as footage of citizens trying to grab tins of cheaper oil at one store went viral. In Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, prices for some unsubsidised bread have shot up 50 per cent in the past week.
The war has already driven wheat prices 70 per cent higher in Chicago this year and is threatening to upend global food trade. Russia and Ukraine supply about 29 per cent of the global wheat trade.
Wheat prices have surpassed levels last seen during the 2008 global food crisis - which helped spark widespread protests - and a United Nations index of food prices hit a record last month.
The UN World Food Programme warned on Friday that disruptions in production and exports as a result of the war in Ukraine could lead to food insecurity globally.
In Egypt, bakers say unsubsidised bread prices are rising because of higher costs since the invasion of Ukraine. A pack of five flat-bread loaves can now sell for about 7.5 Egyptian pounds (S$0.65) in the greater Cairo area, up from 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago, according to Khaled Sabri, a member of the bakeries division at Egypt's chamber of commerce.
In Turkey, sunflower oil is the main cooking oil and a key component of food spending. Images of an 18-litre tin being sold for 989 liras (S$93) spurred debates on the cost of living, while the item was not available at all on the websites of some grocery chains.
Ukraine and Russia together account for about three-quarters of global exports of sunflower oil. Prices from Ukraine had rallied about 50 per cent versus June last year, according to figures from UkrAgroConsult, the last of which was dated Feb 24, the day of the invasion.
The concern over sunflower oil prices is related to imports stuck at ships at the Sea of Azov, the north-eastern tip of the Black Sea, according to Mr Ahmet Atici, secretary-general of the Vegetable Oil Industrialists Association.
"Russia should let those ships go," Mr Atici said. The group sent a letter to the Trade Ministry earlier this month, warning that current supplies may last only to mid-April.
A total of 18 Turkish commercial vessels have been waiting at the Don River and the Russian ports at the Sea of Azov, a Turkish official told Bloomberg.
Inflation in Turkey is already running at a 20-year high, and the last stretch of high global food prices a decade ago triggered protests and political unrest in numerous regions worldwide.
A trade group in the European Union has warned it could run dry of sunflower oil by a similar time, with the lost volumes from Ukraine impossible to offset at short notice.
Even in Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of edible oils, high prices are starting to bite. The government is boosting control over local products, while supermarkets have imposed a one-pack-per-shopper buying limit on cooking oil. Families are bringing their young children to line up so they can buy more.
"We get information from parking attendants on when fresh supplies will arrive at our local mini-mart," said Ms Nining Ristyaningsih, a mother of three from Depok, near Jakarta. "Then I'd bring my husband and sometimes my kids to queue."
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