SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) - Oil held above US$80 a barrel on expectations that a power crisis from Asia to Europe will lift demand and tighten global balances. West Texas Intermediate futures edged higher in Asian trading after closing 1.5 per cent higher on Monday (Oct 11).
Oil markets are tightening rapidly in the run-up to the northern hemisphere winter as shortages of natural gas and coal boost demand for alternative power generation fuels such as diesel and fuel oil. The caution by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (Opec+) in restoring supply is adding to the upward price pressure.
The switching is changing the US crude benchmark's market structure, pushing it deeper into backwardation, a bullish pattern that indicates a dearth of supply. It is also prompting an upgrade of price forecasts, with Citigroup raising its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to US$85 a barrel and saying it could spike to US$90 at times on factors including gas-to-oil substitution this winter.
Opec+ will likely struggle to meet demand growth for the rest of the year, according to Mr Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Strategist Wayne Gordon at UBS AG Wealth Management said: "If oil prices keep heading towards the US$90 a barrel mark, there is a possibility that Opec could start to turn up the tap a little bit more and try to cool the market."
He said that in some ways, "oil is the passenger here in terms of coal and gas prices", so a lot will depend on how cold the winter is.
If the rally continues, it could also prompt supply and political responses from the United States. Privately held refiners are ramping up drilling in the Permian Basin, while the White House may put more pressure on Opec to pump more.
President Joe Biden knows that "high gasoline prices are not good for incumbents", said Mr Daniel Yergin, oil historian and vice-chairman of IHS Markit. "We'll certainly be hearing more from the administration."
Oil refiners, meanwhile, are enjoying a much-needed boost in profitability due to the energy crises. Complex refining margins in Singapore, a proxy for the Asian region, have risen to their highest in two years, while those for diesel are near a 21-month high.
