How bad is 'No' for Greek banks? Here's what analysts say

Customers queue to use an ATM operated by the National Bank of Greece SA in Athens, Greece, on June 26, 2015.
Customers queue to use an ATM operated by the National Bank of Greece SA in Athens, Greece, on June 26, 2015.PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

PARIS (BLOOMBERG) - Greece's "no" vote, rejecting further austerity demanded by creditors, left analysts and financial researchers working Sunday to predict whether the European Central Bank will continue providing the nation's banks with aid - and what will happen without it.

The ECB meets Monday to discuss extending a new lifeline to Greek lenders, which have been closed for a week by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to stem withdrawals and preserve capital. Without an injection from the ECB - or a lower withdrawal limit - ATMs will start running dry soon, Louka Katseli, chairwoman of the National Bank of Greece, said Friday.

Below are excerpts from research notes and interviews, with some predicting the ECB will continue its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program, providing banks with cash to serve customers - or that the facility will shut this month, retaining collateral already pledged and wiping out shareholders:

Diego Iscaro, senior economist at IHS Global Insight in London: "We expect the central bank to continue providing liquidity to Greece's financial sector, although the small chance of the ECB increasing the cap on the Emergency Liquidity Assistance this week has disappeared with the referendum result. This significantly raises the probability of banks running out of cash over the coming days. We estimate it is very likely banks will not reopen on 7 July as currently expected. Moreover, the limit on bank withdrawals, currently at 60 euros (S$89), may also need to be reduced."

Barclays economics research, led by Francois Cabau, referring to the ECB's general council: "We would expect ECB's GC to shut down ELA at the latest by 20 July. Assuming that all of the pledged collateral at the ECB is recorded at (close to) par on Greek banks' balance sheets and that current average haircut on collateral is 50 per cent, then retention of the collateral by the euro system would translate into a more than 30 billion-euro loss for the banks. This alone would wipe out shareholders' equity. The Greek central bank will eventually need to print its own currency in order to inject new liquidity and capital."

Roy Smith, finance professor at New York University's Stern School of Business: "The ECB may not want to see the Greek banking system go down in flames overnight - before some sort of smoothing exit arrangements can be made that could enable Greece to have a decent survival chance outside the euro. Maybe a 30-day line of credit to enable the banks to reopen, and to see for sure whether Greece is going to leave the euro or not. I don't see how the troika can continue to work with Greece, but I do see a willingness to help them leave as gracefully as possible."