Cyber Monday US spending growth seen lagging Europe amid tariffs

SEATTLE - Cyber Monday spending will grow much more slowly in the US than Europe, a new phenomenon that reflects the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade war and aggressive interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, according to an estimate released on Dec 1 by Salesforce.

Global online spending, mostly from Europe, will increase 8 per cent to reach US$53.7 billion (S$69.6 billion), while US spending will rise by 4 per cent to US$13.4 billion, according to the estimate, which is based on transactions of 1.5 billion consumers.

Salesforce said earlier that global Black Friday spending grew twice as fast as US sales.

Online holiday spending typically rises more quickly in the US, said Ms Caila Schwartz, Salesforce’s director of consumer insights. She attributes 2025’s result to tariff-stung US shoppers and the economic boost European countries are seeing from a series of interest rate cuts that began in 2024. The estimate could change if US shoppers stampede online in the final hours of Cyber Monday, which fell on Dec 1.

“After a relatively soft 2024 in key markets like the UK, Germany and France, coupled with the lowering of interest rates, the EU consumer is ready to buy this Cyber Week,” Ms Schwartz said in an interview.

Mixed signals are swirling in the US this holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation expects US spending in November and December to increase as much as 4.2 per cent to US$1.02 trillion, slightly less than 2024’s growth. But American consumer confidence in November took its deepest dive in seven months due to a shaky labour market and concerns about the 43-day government shutdown. Black Friday shoppers were largely underwhelmed by scant discounts.

Cyber Monday is once again expected to be the biggest online shopping day of the year in the US. Consumers who waited to buy big-ticket items are being rewarded with steeper discounts averaging 31 per cent compared with 28 per cent on Black Friday, according to Salesforce.

This is the first holiday shopping season since Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April on dozens of countries, sending shockwaves through the global supply chain and prompting ongoing negotiations with China, a major exporter to the US. It can take as long as a year for tariffs to show up in consumer prices, and many brands and retailers stockpiled inventory to pre-empt the trade war’s possible impact.

Tariffs seem to be weighing on video game consoles. In previous years, bargain hunters could usually find Cyber Monday deals on older models made by Sony and Nintendo, but such deals are elusive in 2025, according to Ms Kristin McGrath, a senior editor at the deal-hunting website the Krazy Coupon Lady. 

Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft all warned they’d be raising the prices on gaming consoles in 2025, but there had been hope for holiday discounting.

“To see older models selling at full price is unexpected,” Ms McGrath said. “We just aren’t seeing strong gaming deals.” BLOOMBERG