Chinese exporters brace for ‘rat race’ in shift away from US

BEIJING/HONG KONG - Mr Jeremy Fang, a sales officer at a Chinese aluminium products maker, is trying to export more to markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the US tariffs’ impact. The problem, he says, is that his competitors have the same idea.

“It will only result in a mad rat race,” said Mr Fang, expecting his firm will have to reduce prices and accept lower profit margins. “The cake is only that big. We all want to grab a piece, so the competition will get intense.”

The trade war between Washington and Beijing, which escalated in February with

US President Donald Trump imposing additional 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods

as an “opening salvo”, could deal a new supply shock to the rest of the world.

Chinese producers, facing weak demand at home and harsher conditions in the United States, where they sell more than US$400 billion (S$538 billion) worth of goods annually, have no choice but to rush to alternative export markets all at the same time.

But no other country comes even close to US consumption power, significantly limiting the production the rest of the world could absorb from its second-largest economy.

This will intensify price wars among Chinese exporters, squeezing their profitability, while also risking further political backlash in the new markets and fanning deflationary forces, if smaller margins result in job losses, wage cuts and reduced investment.

Mr Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, says market diversification is an understandable but unsustainable strategy.

“One risk is that suddenly every Chinese exporter will look to develop the same other markets,” said Mr Neumann, adding it would weigh on profits.

“But the real risk is that the receiving countries might ultimately then be forced to raise restrictive measures on China, because their own producers are coming under pressure.”

Tensions are already high. Over the past year, the European Union has increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles while India, Indonesia and other emerging markets have raised their own trade barriers on certain Chinese products.

China is a formidable competitor in some sectors. Major electric vehicle makers such as BYD or DeepSeek’s AI platform have already made a mark on the global stage.

“We have very strong supply chain systems,” said Mr Dave Fong, who manufactures school bags, talking teddy bears, stationery and consumer electronics in China and is investing 30 per cent to 40 per cent more on advertising and business development in Europe and Asia.

“From one idea to mass production, everything is very fast.”

But smaller firms worry about survival.

Mr Richard Chen, who owns a Christmas decorations factory in southern China, says he operates on almost no profit margins and is unsure whether he can keep all 80 of his staff in 2025.

“We tried to go into Poland, but they simply don’t buy things like customers in the US do,” said Mr Chen. “This is the worst things have ever been.”

Ripples at home

The price wars abroad risk accelerating deflationary forces at home.

A manager at a bathtub factory in Shijiazhuang, some 300km south of Beijing, says he is trying to sell more in Brazil and Argentina to cushion the impact of the 35 per cent tariffs he now faces in the US after the latest hike.

He said American retailers pressure him to cut prices by 10 per cent, but he hesitates, having already slashed wages by 10 per cent to 15 per cent to stay competitive.

“There are many Chinese foreign traders in the same industry. For everyone, it’s so difficult,” said the manager.

Mr Li Yongqi, manager at Jialifu Electric Vehicle Company, which makes electric scooters and tricycles, sells mostly domestically, but expects that wage cuts and job losses at other factories, and the ongoing property crisis in China, will shrink demand at home and shave 20 per cent to 30 per cent of his profits.

“Chinese firms in every industry are going abroad and rushing into overseas markets, then foreign governments all place tariffs and sanctions,” Mr Li said. “Most of these factories are laying off workers to reduce costs.”

The Politburo, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body, called on industries in 2024 to avoid destructive competition. Chinese solar panel producers have urged the government to intervene to curb overcapacity.

Dr Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, said the only way out for China is to produce less.

“It will be very painful,” she added. “Nobody is going to take your products forever. So it’s just a choice: If you want to create more welfare, more growth, then you need to consume more.”

Mr Neumann at HSBC says policies that boost household consumption may benefit China internationally as well.

“Ultimately, to lower trade frictions with the rest of the world... it’s also about developing domestic demand to help absorb some of the production,” Mr Neumann said. REUTERS