China’s economy slows sharply in ominous sign as Trump’s trade war starts to take toll
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Production at Chinese factories and mines rose at the slowest rate since November and expanded 5.7 per cent in July from a year earlier.
PHOTO: EPA
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BEIJING – China’s economy slowed across the board in July with factory activity and retail sales disappointing, suggesting US President Donald Trump’s trade war is starting to weigh on the world’s No. 2 economy.
Production at Chinese factories and mines rose at the slowest rate since November and expanded 5.7 per cent in July from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Aug 15, compared with June’s gain of 6.8 per cent.
The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey was for an increase of 6 per cent.
Retail sales grew 3.7 per cent year on year in July, the least in 2025, down from 4.8 per cent in the previous month.
Expansion in fixed-asset investment in the first seven months of the year decelerated to 1.6 per cent, as a contraction in the real estate sector deepened. The surveyed urban unemployment rate worsened more than expected to 5.2 per cent.
“July’s main economic indicators suggest that the country’s tariff-related swoon has begun,” said senior macro strategist Lee Homin at Lombard Odier in Singapore. “The loss of momentum evident in both demand and supply indicators calls for the mid-year fiscal policy tweak.”
The latest snapshot of the economy indicated that China’s growth lost steam after a show of resilience earlier in 2025 allowed Beijing to take a wait-and-see approach to further stimulus.
Top leaders have signalled they will stick with supportive measures already planned while promising to pump in more aid when needed, a strategy analysts expect to be fine-tuned pending economic figures in the coming months.
“China’s economy overcame negative factors, including a complex and fast-changing external environment and extreme weather at home, and maintained progress amid stability,” the NBS said. “The economy showed relatively strong resilience and vibrancy.”
Although uncertainty abounds over the outlook for global trade, industrial activity and construction also suffered from extreme weather. The disruptions in July, caused by high temperatures, unusually heavy rain and flooding in large swathes of China, added to what is traditionally a slow season for the economy.
Growth in yuan-denominated new loans contracted for the first time in 20 years
But in a boost to the economy, China’s exports remained a bright spot in 2025 despite a drop in shipments to the US after Mr Trump raised tariffs.
Instead of announcing massive new measures to juice growth, Beijing in recent weeks ramped up efforts to curb cut-throat competition among businesses. The campaign has attracted intense attention from investors, given the stakes involved in reflating the economy and the potential impact on corporate profitability in industries from steel to solar energy to electric cars.
The authorities are looking for ways to boost domestic consumption to reduce reliance on foreign demand in the long run amid rising rivalry with the US. The government this week unveiled a plan to subsidise part of the interest payments on some consumer loans, after announcing earlier it will gradually waive pre-school fees to ease education costs and offer childcare subsidies for families.
“Looking ahead, economic activity data will likely show more signs of growth slowdown, perhaps even at a faster pace in the coming months,” said chief China economist Xiaojia Zhi at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. REUTERS
