China pouring exports into Africa faster than anywhere else

BEIJING - Africa has become a new hot spot for Chinese exports as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs redraw trade for the world’s biggest manufacturing nation.

With a 25 per cent year-on-year jump to US$122 billion (S$157 billion), growth in sales to the continent of 1.5 billion people has far outpaced other major markets in 2025 while orders from the US slumped. China’s exports to Africa so far in 2025 are more than for the whole of 2020 and on track to exceed US$200 billion for the first time.

Although the trading relationship shows no sign of becoming less lopsided, with China running a far wider surplus with Africa than in 2024, Beijing is cracking open its domestic market while seizing the chance to meet the continent’s infrastructure needs. 

“Chinese exporters have done a genuinely impressive job of diversifying into emerging markets in recent years, including in Africa,” said Mr Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. “The weaker yuan this year has probably also made Chinese exports more competitive in African countries.”

The trade war has supercharged a boom that was years in the making, spearheaded by President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative unveiled in 2013. And as Chinese companies snapped up contracts to build everything from railways to industrial parks across the continent, the demand for the machinery and materials to complete these projects followed in 2025.

Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt are the biggest African buyers of Chinese products. Construction machinery was among China’s fastest growing exports to Africa in the first seven months, surging 63 per cent year on year. 

Shipments of passenger cars more than doubled from a year earlier, and some steel products expanded in high double digits. At the same time, Africa’s share of China’s total exports remains modest at about 6 per cent, roughly half the level for the US.

Some goods destined for the US are possibly being diverted through Africa, according to Gavekal’s Mr Beddor, a tactic known as transshipment.

Rising protectionism in Washington has given extra incentive for Africa to buy from Beijing. A number of goods from more than 30 nations on the continent that had duty-free access to American markets granted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act are now being subjected to a range of tariffs by the Trump administration.

In a counterpoint to Mr Trump, Mr Xi said in June that China is removing levies on imports from all African nations with which it has diplomatic ties. 

During the same month, Beijing allowed imports of agricultural products from Ethiopia, Congo, Gambia, and Malawi, bringing to 19 the number of African countries with access to China’s market. 

In Africa, China could bring know-how and its vast industrial machine to a continent struggling with costly logistics and held back by its patchy infrastructure, with less than half of the population having reliable electricity access.

In the first half of 2025 alone, Africa inked US$30.5 billion in construction contracts with China, according to a July report from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Centre, founded at Shanghai-based Fudan University. That is five times the amount during the same period in 2024 and the most among all regions included in Mr Xi’s infrastructure initiative.  

“Energy resources remain unevenly distributed in Africa, with some nations heavily reliant on imports like oil,” said Dr Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think-tank under the Ministry of Commerce.

“Alternatives offered by China, such as solar and wind power as well as electric cars, can help African countries overcome energy bottlenecks, prompting them to increase imports from the country in pursuit of energy independence and economic development,” he said.

Affordability is another factor working in China’s favour. Despite higher demand, prices for 14 out of the 18 major Chinese goods shipped to Africa actually fell on a yearly basis in the January to July period, with transformers and converters posting the deepest decline of 39 per cent.

China is also bringing financial muscle to the continent with the world’s fastest-growing population, often in the form of backing from state-owned banks. Only in recent months, China Development Bank released a €245 million (S$366 million) first tranche of funding for a railway project in Nigeria and extended a loan for infrastructure construction in Egypt.

Although most of the commodities imported from Africa to China are priced in US dollars, the expanding trade footprint will probably help the renminbi make inroads in corporate and government balance sheets.

Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt are among the four countries on the continent that already have bilateral currency swaps with the central bank in Beijing – a list that includes Mauritius. Kenya has announced it is in talks to convert some dollar-denominated loans to renminbi to help ease the strain of debt.

“China obviously benefits from greater use of its currency in the financial system – so that’s the incentive to offer preferential terms if they swap currency debt,” said Mr David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics. “I do expect heavily exposed countries to China in terms of debt like Angola will perhaps follow Kenya’s lead on this yuan swap if it’s pulled off.”

Chinese goods barred or resisted elsewhere are meanwhile receiving little pushback in Africa. Exports of steel and iron components – used to build bridges, towers and scaffolding – climbed 43 per cent.

Sales of batteries spiked 41 per cent, and transformers and converters, including inverters that adapt electricity from solar panels and wind systems to power home appliances and industrial equipment, soared nearly 25 per cent. 

For now, China has yet to encounter the kind of backlash seen from countries around the world that fear the flood of cheaper goods. But it is a risk in a region already worried about falling further into debt with China, especially if the exports begin to crowd out local producers

But Beijing will tread carefully, since the continent is critical as a source of key commodities and a growth market for its companies. Furthermore, it has become a central arena for China’s aspirations on the world stage.

“Africa is where China takes its firms and brands global – they get experience, create markets, and win brand recognition,” said Dr Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa expert from New South Economics, a consultancy in Melbourne. “It is important for China’s global development leadership push.” BLOOMBERG