China factory gate inflation hits 26-year high as power crunch bites

Mounting price pressures in China are squeezing profit margins for producers and heightening stagflation concerns. PHOTO: AFP

BEIJING (REUTERS) - China's factory gate inflation hit a 26-year high in October as coal prices soared amid a power crunch in the country's industrial heartland, further squeezing profit margins for producers and heightening stagflation concerns.

The producer price index (PPI) climbed 13.5 per cent from a year earlier, faster than the 10.7 per cent rise in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday (Nov 10).

It matched a pace not seen since July 1995 and was faster than the 12.4 per cent forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Consumer price rises also quickened, although at a slower pace than factory gate prices. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.5 per cent in October year-on-year, compared with September's 0.7 per cent rise.

The mounting price pressures complicate deliberations for the People's Bank of China (PBoC), which may now be wary of injecting monetary stimulus too quickly amid concerns about fanning inflation, even as growth in the world's second-largest economy slows.

"We are concerned about the pass-through from producer prices to consumer prices," said Pinpoint Asset Management chief economist Zhang Zhiwei in a note.

Consumer prices will likely speed up in coming months as firms faced depleted inventories and are forced to pass higher costs onto customers, he added.

"The risk of stagflation continues to rise."

Slowing economic growth and soaring factory inflation have fuelled concerns over stagflation, which could mean China has to move cautiously on loosening monetary policy.

"Rising CPI inflation and elevated PPI inflation reduces the probability of a PBoC policy rate cut," said Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu.

Power sting

Upstream industries drove factory gate price rises, with coal mining and washing prices surging 103.7 per cent from a year earlier and prices in the oil and gas extraction industry rising 59.7 per cent.

Restrictions on carbon emissions and soaring prices of coal, a key fuel for electricity generation, led to power rationing and production cuts in recent months, although coal prices have since fallen after government intervention.

"Factory gate inflation is probably close to a peak," said Mr Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in a note, citing coal price falls.

Several Chinese food giants have announced increases in retail prices in recent weeks, as rising production costs erode profit margins. Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, vinegar producer giant Jiangsu Hengshun and frozen food firm Fujian Anjoy Foods have all hiked prices.

The PPI inched up 2.5 per cent on a monthly basis, compared with the 1.2 per cent uptick in September.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, stood at 1.3 per cent rise last month from the previous year, higher than the 1.2 per cent uptick in September.

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.