NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - With the havoc at ports showing no signs of abating and prices for a vast array of goods still rising, the world is absorbing a troubling realisation: Time alone will not solve the Great Supply Chain Disruption.

It will require investment, technology and a refashioning of the incentives at play across global business. It will take more ships, additional warehouses and an influx of truck drivers, none of which can be conjured quickly or cheaply. Many months, and perhaps years, are likely to transpire before the chaos subsides.

"It's unlikely to happen in 2022," said Dr Phil Levy, chief economist at Flexport, a freight forwarding company. "My crystal ball gets murky further out."

For those who keep tabs on the global supply chain, the very concept of a return to normality has given way to a begrudging acceptance that a new normal may be unfolding.

Cheap and reliable shipping may no longer be taken as a given, forcing manufacturers to move production closer to customers. After decades of reliance on lean warehouses and online systems that monitor inventory and summon goods as needed - a boon to shareholders - manufacturers may revert to a more prudent focus on extra capacity.

The deepening understanding that the supply chain crisis has staying power poses a daunting challenge to policymakers.

Mayhem at factories, ports and shipping yards, combined with the market dominance of major companies, is a key driver for rising prices. Spooked by the highest rates of inflation in decades, the United States Federal Reserve has resolved to tighten credit, while the Bank of England and other central banks have already lifted interest rates, sowing alarm in stock markets from New York to Tokyo.

Singapore, which imports nearly almost everything it consumes, is also affected. Last week the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its Singdollar policy for second time in three months to counter inflation running at its fastest pace in nearly eight years from global supply constraints and brisk economic demand.

But, whatever the politicians and central bankers unleash in the name of taming inflation, businesses continue to struggle to manufacture and distribute their products.

Whirlpool recently warned that customers who purchased its washing machines, refrigerators and other household appliances would continue to experience delays as the company contended with supply chain problems.

Even as Tesla last week announced record profits amid overwhelming demand for its electric cars, the company said that sales would be hurt by difficulties in the supply chain - not least due to continued shortages of computer chips.

The chip shortage has limited the production of cars worldwide, while stymying makers of medical devices and a vast range of electronic gadgets. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently described persistent chip shortages as an "alarming" threat to American industry.

The International Monetary Fund last week cited supply chain woes among other factors as it downgraded its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.4 per cent from 4.9 per cent.

The breadth and persistence of supply chain troubles in part result from how the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated trends that have been unfolding for decades, especially the growth of e-commerce.

Whereas major brands traditionally ship goods from factories around the world to central warehouses that supply retail outlets, e-commerce demands a far more complicated endeavor: Retailers must deliver individual orders to homes and businesses.

As warehouses have been swamped by goods, major retailers have added capacity at a breakneck pace. Amazon spent more than US$164 million (S$221 million) to construct new warehouse space last year, while Lowe's, the home improvement retailer, spent more than US$17 million, according to Reonomy, a commercial real estate data provider.

The tightness in warehouses helps explain why US ports remain seized by dysfunction, especially the busiest one, the complex of terminals at Los Angeles and Long Beach. With limited room to stash goods offloaded from inbound vessels, containers have piled up on docks uncollected. That has prompted port overseers to force ships to float offshore for days and even weeks before they can unload.

Over the past three months, container ships unloading goods have remained at US ports for seven days on average, an increase of 4 per cent compared with all last year, and 21 per cent higher than at the start of the pandemic, according to FourKites, a supply chain consultancy based in Chicago.

As ports work through the backlog, they are contending with structural problems - aging and overtaxed infrastructure, a shortage of chassis used to haul containers with lorries, and not enough drivers, even as lorry companies increase pay.

Shipping companies are hobbled by outmoded technology that has limited their ability to anticipate and plan around problems.

"Those systemic problems in the supply chains, this has been building for years," said FourKites senior vice-president and general manager for international solutions Steve Dowse. "The pandemic has really just highlighted the fragility of our supply chains."

Even as companies confront the supply chain upheaval, the costs and complexity of solving their troubles may dissuade executives from taking effective action.

In a recent survey of more than 3,000 chief executives conducted by consulting firm Alix Partners, fewer than half said they were taking longer-term action to alleviate supply chain challenges, while a majority said they were relying on short-term measures. Regardless of their approach, more than three-fourths of CEOs were sceptical that their plans would prove effective.

The biggest uncertainty centres on what happens next.

Once a household spends several thousand dollars to outfit an exercise room in the basement, its occupants may not return to their old gym after the pandemic ends. Rather than shell out for a gym membership, they may opt to invest in additional gear at home, adding more weights or an elliptical.

As white-collar professionals begin a third year in their home offices, attending video conferences in sweatpants, how many will jump at the chance to again don business attire? And what does that mean for retailers that sell such clothing?

These are merely some of the variables at play as businesses try to divine the future. The dearth of solid information may dissuade investments - in trucking, in shipping, in warehouses, in technology - that might ease the supply chain upheaval.

"All of these head-scratching puzzles, these are really difficult," Mr Levy said. "Everybody is wary of getting caught out."