Palantir’s 2,500% stock rally has bulls scrambling to justify valuation

NEW YORK – Palantir Technologies’ meteoric rise is pushing the company’s valuation further into record territory, forcing bullish investors to bank on increasingly robust future growth to justify its current level.

Shares of the defence software maker closed at another all-time high on Aug 8, bringing gains since its 2021 debut to near 2,500 per cent. The stock is up almost 150 per cent in 2025, a rally underpinned by the company’s growing use of artificial intelligence (AI), business ties to the US government and, most recently, a stellar earnings report.

The surge has made Palantir eye-wateringly expensive compared with its peers. Trading at 245 times forward earnings, it is the most richly valued company in the S&P 500 Index. By comparison, chipmaker Nvidia, another big gainer, trades at just 35 times forward earnings. 

Palantir is “turning into a bit of a difficult valuation story to sell, but it’s a great company”, said Mr Mark Giarelli of Morningstar Investment Service, who has a sell-equivalent rating on the stock. The valuation “causes heartburn, but that’s the story right now”.

Plenty of Wall Street professionals and retail investors alike are happy to hang on for now, wary of missing out on further upside. Still, it is getting hard for them to ignore the increasingly high bar that Palantir must meet to justify its performance over the longer term.

Mr Damian Reimertz of Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the company would need to generate US$60 billion (S$77 billion) over the next 12 months to trade at a comparable valuation to its peers. 

That calculation – based on a comparison of the software companies’ enterprise value-to-sales ratio – is many times higher than the US$4 billion in revenues that Wall Street expects Palantir to earn in fiscal year 2025 or the US$5.7 billion analysts forecast for next year. 

Valuation is also a sticking point for Mr Gil Luria, managing director and head of technology research at DA Davidson. Mr Luria praised Palantir’s quarterly results and called it “the best story in all of software” in a recent note. 

But he estimates that the company would have to grow at 50 per cent annually for the next five years and maintain a 50 per cent margin to get its forward price-to-earnings ratio down to 30, in line with the likes of Microsoft and Advanced Micro Devices.

In a broader sign of Wall Street’s unease, more than twice as many analysts have assigned the stock sell or hold ratings than buy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, Palantir’s shares have become a must-own for portfolio managers concerned with beating performance benchmarks, said Mr David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors, which holds shares of the company.

“There are a lot of investors that just can’t ignore it,” said Mr Wagner. “They don’t believe in the stock, but they’re tired of it just hurting them on a relative performance standpoint.”

‘Squint your eyes’

Palantir bulls are betting that the company’s business performance will support its stock price over the long term, a path taken by many of today’s Big Tech elite. Online streamer Netflix, for instance, traded north of 280 times forward earnings at a 2015 peak, and now stands at a forward price-to-earnings of 40.

“Definitely Palantir is part of that AI craze, but not everything that goes to a valuation of 200 is a bubble,” said Ms Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates, referring to Netflix.

Mr Brent Bracelin at Piper Sandler boosted his price target on shares to US$182 from US$170 following earnings and maintained his overweight rating. He is counting on the company to continue growing aggressively and sustain high free cash flow margins till end-2030, aided by a market for defence spending estimated at US$1 trillion in the US alone. 

“You have to squint your eyes. You kind of have to believe that these audacious growth goals can be achieved,” he said. BLOOMBERG