Oil tanker rates jump as US push into Venezuela shifts crude flows

Singapore – The shipping market is being shaken up by Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, as the prospect of more oil being exported to the United States boosts regional tanker rates to their highest level in almost two years.

After US forces seized Nicolas Maduro and Washington asserted its control over the nation’s energy industry, more crude from the OPEC member will be available for American refiners, likely to be delivered on mid-sized tankers. In a knock-on effect, more US-produced West Texas Intermediate crude will be pushed to Europe on the same type of vessel, squeezing availability.

The global oil industry – including producers, refiners, shippers and traders – is working through the consequences of Washington’s move earlier in January, which saw special forces snatch the country’s leader and haul him to the US. President Donald Trump has put control of the nation’s oil industry at the heart of the operation, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying it plans to direct future sales of Venezuelan crude “indefinitely”.

For ship owners, that means higher rates on some routes as current and future oil flows are redirected, with Washington starting to ease sanctions on Venezuela. Before the US intervention, the bulk of the South American nation’s exports were shipped to China, carried on so-called dark-fleet vessels.

“The imminent redirection of Venezuelan crude-oil flows from China to US Gulf seems to be causing a structural change in the Aframax segment,” said Mr Georgios Sakellariou, a chartering analyst at Signal Maritime, a vessel-pool management company, referring to the mid-sized vessels that haul about 700,000 barrels. “This is a typical trend that underscores how geopolitical developments become shipping reality.”

On the route from the Caribbean to the US Gulf, known by the Baltic Exchange as TD9, prices reached US$78,795 (S$101,470) a day on Jan 14, the highest since early 2024. Meanwhile, on TD25, for the US Gulf to the major European refining hub in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, rates rose for five days to hit US$64,404.

Other routes are also seeing gains, given the lack of immediately available vessels in the region. On TD26 – which tracks fees for tankers hauling oil from the east coast of Mexico to the US Gulf – rates reached US$90,681 on Jan 14, after spiking 21 per cent the day before.

At stake are monthly flows that were running at a little more than half-a-million barrels a day before the US confrontation, which included a naval blockade.

In November, ships loaded 586,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude a day, according to shipping reports, Kpler data and US Customs. That was up 37 per cent from a month earlier, but 12 per cent lower on-year.

Luring tankers

Prospects for more Venezuelan crude going to the US are also luring tankers from other regions, with some ready to sail empty – or ballasting – across oceans to take on cargoes from South America.

Among them, the Front Siena is ballasting west across the Atlantic from Spain, declaring that it is headed to Guyana, near Venezuela, and waiting for orders, brokers say. Elsewhere, Mare Siculum is also traversing the Atlantic empty, and has been fixed for a route from the east coast of Mexico to Europe.

Shortly after the US operation, President Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US, declaring it would be sold with the proceeds benefiting both countries. He also convened a meeting at the White House for industry executives to press the case for them to invest in the country to rehabilitate its run-down energy infrastructure.

Despite that push, the outlook for the nation’s supplies remains cloudy. While the head of Exxon Mobil called the nation currently “uninvestable”, flagging challenges to reviving supplies, consultant Enverus has forecast that Venezuela’s crude output could surge by roughly 50 per cent over the coming decade. BLOOMBERG