Asian airlines cut flights, carry extra fuel as supplies tighten with Iran war

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HONG KONG/SINGAPORE - Airlines across Asia are cutting flights, having their planes carry extra fuel from home airports and adding refuelling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes jet fuel supply, adding pressure to an industry already hit by a sharp jump in fuel costs.

European carriers are bracing themselves for similar disruption after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off nearly 21 per cent of global seaborne jet fuel supply, according to Kpler.

A more than doubling of jet fuel prices since the start of the Iran war has pushed some airlines to cut capacity.

In the latest such move, Air New Zealand said on April 7 it would slash flights across May and June as well as hike fares, as the Iran war sends jet fuel costs soaring. The airline said the flight consolidations, its second such move in nearly a month, would affect around 4 per cent of flights and 1 per cent of total passengers due to travel across May and June.

In one of the starkest examples, Batik Air Malaysia on April 6 slashed domestic capacity by 36 per cent, with chief executive Chandran Rama Muthy describing the cuts as a necessary and proactive response to a “crisis-mode” environment.

“If we were to continue operating without making adjustments, it could further expose the company to operational and financial risk,” he said.

Asia, Europe and Africa are most exposed, analysts have said, because the US has ample domestic fuel supplies.

Jet fuel rationing

Previous oil shocks mainly drove up prices, but this one is also constraining physical supply, forcing governments, airlines and airports to consider rationing.

“In my conversation with airlines, they are very concerned about what the future looks like, because we do not know when the war will end and we don’t know when the supply chain, the feedstock, will come from the Gulf area,” said Mr Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.

Within Asia, the pain has so far been sharpest in lower-income, import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped them at 2025 levels.

Budget airline AirAsia X is now loading extra fuel in Malaysia before flying to Vietnamese airports, chief executive Bo Lingam told reporters on April 6. “Not to say that they are not giving us fuel, but they limit the amount of fuel,” he said of Vietnam.

Past temporary jet fuel shortages at airports due to shipment disruptions or contamination have usually led to rationing rather than complete outages.

Airlines have typically responded by loading extra fuel at home airports, adding refuelling stops on longer routes or carrying less cargo.

For a more prolonged crisis, another solution is to cut flights. Asia, which has a thinner supply cushion than Europe and is more dependent on Hormuz flows, has been hit more quickly.

Vietnam Airlines has cut 23 domestic flights per week to conserve fuel, according to the country’s aviation authority.

Airlines based in Myanmar suspended domestic flights for part of March because of jet fuel shortages, its transport ministry said, and some of its carriers have also cut capacity in April, according to aviation data provider Cirium.

Air India is making refuelling stops in Kolkata on its return from Yangon to Delhi as a result of fuel shortages at Yangon airport, according to a source familiar with the matter.

In the South Pacific, Tahiti International Airport has restricted refuelling for international flights to quantities essential for flight operations because of the Middle Eastern crisis, a notice to pilots shows.

In Pakistan, pilots are being advised to carry maximum fuel from abroad. That practice, known as “tankering”, is costly because carrying extra fuel increases fuel burn.

“Some countries are in better shape than others,” said Mr Brendan Sobie, a Singapore-based independent aviation analyst. “Some may be limiting (fuel for) foreign airlines, which then leads to the tankering. This could be proactive as some countries fear they could run out.”

Demand destruction

Global airlines have also cut flights as fare increases needed to cover fuel costs deter price-sensitive travellers.

But even with flight cuts, airline demand is not falling fast enough to match the drop in jet fuel supply, analysts said.

At least 400,000 barrels per day of jet fuel that normally is produced in the Asia-Pacific region via crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz have been affected since the crisis started, according to Reuters’ calculations.

“There is no easy way to replace the lost volumes, especially as Asian supply will start to tighten as refiners cut runs,” said Energy Aspects senior oil products analyst Alex Yap.

Industry sources estimate flight cancellations have lowered April demand in Asia specifically by only about 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, suggesting deeper cuts may be needed.

“We’re only just at the start of that cycle (of flight cuts) as demand from passengers seems to be resilient, but I think any oil-spike induced economic slowdown could hit demand in the second half of the year,” said Cirium’s Asia editor Ellis Taylor. REUTERS