Chinese tourists pull back as economic uncertainty grows, survey shows

SHANGHAI – More Chinese travellers are delaying outbound plans amid economic uncertainty, according to a new survey, potentially rough news for countries depending on one of the world’s biggest source of tourists.

A September survey by consultancy Oliver Wyman found that 54 per cent of respondents – all experienced travellers who had been abroad before the Covid-19 pandemic shut Chinese borders – said they planned to travel in 2023, down from 62 per cent polled in June. About 22 per cent said they did not have plans to venture overseas for the next three years, up from just 6 per cent in June.

Respondents needed to meet a minimal monthly household income of 30,000 yuan (S$5,600), representing the country’s middle class – a key driver being counted on to help boost China’s post-Covid-19 consumption recovery.

While spending on experiential services like travel and eating out has been resilient in 2023, questions have risen about whether that is sustainable.

“While Chinese travellers are returning, it’s taking longer than we expected when the border reopened,” said Ms Imke Wouters, an Oliver Wyman partner who led the research.

The survey also showed 32 per cent of respondents saying their willingness to travel abroad had decreased amid the current economic downturn and political situation, while only 19 per cent said they were more inclined to take international trips.

Enthusiasm for domestic travel remained strong, with 35 per cent saying they were more disposed to journey within China, and just 14 per cent decreasing.

China’s economy picked up steam in August

as a summer travel boom and stimulus push boosted consumer spending and factory output, adding to nascent signs of stabilisation.

Still, the upcoming eight-day Golden Week holiday will be another test of whether Beijing’s recent efforts to bolster the economy are starting to bear fruit.

More than 21 million people are expected to fly during the holiday, starting on Friday, sending airfares climbing. Domestic tourism spots – and short-haul Asian destinations such as Thailand, Japan and South Korea – are among the top choices.

And it is not just travel: The middle class’ worries about the economy may also be reflected in their luxury expenditures.

Of the casual luxury shoppers polled by Oliver Wyman – those who spent less than 40,000 yuan in 2023 – 16 per cent expected to increase their luxury spending, while about 30 per cent considered cutting back. Big spenders – people who spent more than 40,000 yuan – remained more resilient and positive. BLOOMBERG