Bonds fall around the world as chances increase of a December US interest rate rise

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holding a news conference in Washington on Sept 17.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holding a news conference in Washington on Sept 17.PHOTO: REUTERS

SINGAPORE (Bloomberg) - Bonds are falling around the world as traders increased odds to more than 50 per cent that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a seven-week high of 2.24 per cent on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said policy makers may move as soon as their December meeting. German yields reached a two-week high. Australian 10-year yields advanced for a sixth day Thursday.

"Bond yields are rising around the world in sympathy with Treasuries," said Hajime Nagata, a debt money manager in Tokyo at Diam, which oversees US$142.6 billion. "The market is reaffirming that the Fed will lift off in December."

Bond yields increase as the traded price of bonds fall.

The increase in yields around the world underscores the influence of the Fed on global debt markets.

Treasuries are driving borrowing cost higher even as economic growth slows in China and as central bankers in Europe and Japan signal they may increase their debt-purchase programmes.

U.S. government securities have a correlation of 0.8 or more with markets including those in Australia, France, Germany and the U.K., based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A figure of 1 would mean they move in lockstep.

U.S. 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.23 per cent as of 2:01 p.m. in Tokyo on Thursday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.

The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index climbed to 1.09 per cent Wednesday, which is also a seven- week high. The index has fallen 1.1 per cent this month and 3.7 per cent in the past year.

Traders see a 56 per cent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark by its Dec. 15-16 meeting, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The figure has climbed from 33 per cent a month ago.The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate averages 0.375 per cent after the first increase, compared with the current range of zero to 0.25 per cent.