War over Taiwan would change world, says Australian ambassador to US Kevin Rudd
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Australian ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd attending the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan 17.
PHOTO: REUTERS
HONOLULU – Australian ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd cautioned in a speech that the global consequences of a war over Taiwan would be as great as the impact of World War II, making the world “a radically different place”.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping, who turns 71 in June, wanted to achieve reunification of Taiwan, he would likely act in the next decade before he reaches his 80s, Mr Rudd said in a speech in Honolulu on June 6.
“We would be foolish to ignore the increasing clarity of China’s military signalling, including the pattern of its most recent military exercises.”
Whether China acts will depend on its perception of the strength of US deterrence, said Mr Rudd, who was twice Australia’s prime minister in the previous decade.
China views self-governing Taiwan as part of its territory and strongly opposes any moves towards Taiwanese independence. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims.
The US has expressed concern about Chinese military activity near Taiwan, including after the island’s presidential election and the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te
China has warned the United States not to interfere in China’s affairs with Taiwan.
Taiwan and the US have no official diplomatic relationship, as Washington formally recognises Beijing but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and is the island’s most important international backer.
The US recognised that if China was successful in annexing Taiwan, it would impact US credibility and have a “profound, and potentially irreversible, effect on the perceived reliability of US alliances worldwide”, Mr Rudd said.
He added that the US, China and Taiwan have a common interest in avoiding open military confrontation on the future of Taiwan. “The economic costs, domestic political impacts and unknowable geostrategic consequences that such a war would generate would likely be of an order of magnitude that we have not seen since World War II.
“Whatever the outcome (an American victory, a Chinese victory or a bloody stalemate), the world is likely to become a radically different place after such a war than it was before.” REUTERS
