Trump’s Asian allies fear Iran war will sap defences against China
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A US Navy handout photo showing an F/A-18F Super Hornet preparing to launch in support of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, from an undisclosed location on Feb 28.
PHOTO: AFP
- Japanese and Taiwanese officials fear US military distraction in the Middle East could weaken Indo-Pacific defences, enabling China to increase coercion.
- US military resources are "stretched thin" globally, with 40 per cent of operational Navy ships in the Middle East, impacting deterrence and depleting munitions vital for Asia.
- Experts debate if US Middle East actions are a 'grand strategy' to contain China or if prolonged entanglement will ultimately empower Beijing by diverting critical resources.
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TOKYO/TAIPEI/SYDNEY - Japanese lawmakers reeling from attacks on Iran by the US and Israel gathered on March 2 at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo to question bureaucrats about evacuation plans, energy stocks and the legal basis for US action.
But one query posed at the closed-door meeting, described to Reuters by a politician who attended, reflected a deeper fear haunting Asia’s corridors of power since Mr Trump’s weekend attacks
How would the region respond to a hole left in its defences if Washington diverted ships and missiles it now uses to deter China?
The problem is urgent for Japan and South Korea, home to big US military bases that help counter China’s military flexing and nuclear-armed North Korea, as well as for democratic Taiwan, claimed by Beijing and armed by Washington.
“We hope this operation is fast and limited, and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia,” said Mr Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker in Taiwan who sits on its Parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee.
A prolonged conflict could harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific”, said Mr Chen, adding that Taipei must prepare for Beijing to step up “coercion” while the US is distracted.
Mr Trump, who has said US operations in the Middle East will last four or five weeks, but could be sustained far longer, plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March, though Beijing has not confirmed his visit.
Ms Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said on March 3 that Taiwan is an internal matter for China and Beijing firmly opposes the use of force to infringe on the sovereignty and security of other countries.
The US State and Defence Departments did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this report.
‘Stretched thin’
The Japanese politician who recounted the March 2 questioning said a top Foreign Ministry official replied that Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that it would not shift US military assets.
About 40 per cent of US navy ships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a February report.
These include an aircraft carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, and at least six missile destroyers based in the Pacific ports of California, Hawaii and Japan, the US Naval Institute said on March 2.
The only US carrier deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance at its base in the Japanese city of Yokosuka.
“The US Navy is stretched thin,” said Mr Bryan Clark, a former US defence official specialising in naval operations at the Hudson Institute.
If the war dragged on, there was a realistic possibility that the US could draw down its naval strength in Asia to reinforce the Iran conflict, he added.
“The fleet... is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theatre.”
The Iran conflict is also depleting reserves of US munitions, about which experts have long warned. The US military has asked defence firms to step up production, but that could take several years.
That is a concern for the US because rebuilding munitions reserves in the Indo-Pacific helps deter China from military action on Taiwan over the medium term, said a US official who sought anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.
Japan has already faced delays in deliveries of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the US and could fall further behind schedule, said Captain Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
Grand strategy?
It has been just three months since Washington unveiled a new security strategy that framed the Indo-Pacific as the key “geopolitical battleground”, and made a top priority of deterring a conflict over Taiwan.
Since then, Mr Trump has captured the leader of Venezuela in an audacious military strike, threatened to annex Greenland and teamed with Israel to launch the air war against Iran.
But while allies in Asia worry he may be taking his eye off the prize, some analysts say Beijing has little to cheer, at least for now.
By hitting Venezuela and Iran, Mr Trump weakened two of its allies that sent China streams of cheap oil, buoying its economy.
Some analysts have even suggested his military actions are part of a grand plan to enable the US to focus on containing China.
But the longer Mr Trump’s entanglement in the Middle East persists, the more Beijing could start to benefit.
“The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources towards dealing with China’,” said a Japanese ruling party lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to shift.”
China has exploited previous episodes of US distraction, said Commander Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer with the Royal Australian Navy, pointing to its rapid militarisation of South China Sea islands as the US pursued the war in Afghanistan.
“Beijing will be watching closely,” added Comm Parker, a non-resident fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute think-tank. REUTERS
