Thailand’s snap poll set to boost odds for PM Anutin, but risks loom

BANGKOK – Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul looks set to tap burgeoning nationalism over a border conflict with Cambodia to boost his appeal in a general election stemming from his

dissolution of Parliament

after less than 100 days in power.

The political manoeuvring came after

fierce border clashes

erupted again this week, following five days of fighting in July, hurling South-east Asia’s second-largest economy immediately into election mode.

The election is likely by early February, as polls must follow within 45 to 60 days of the dissolution, but no party is expected to secure a clear majority, which, analysts warned, could prompt more horse-trading and tumult.

A key reason for dissolving Parliament is an escalation of nationalism from the border clashes that stands to benefit Mr Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party, said Professor Titipol Phakdeewanich, who teaches political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

“This is one of the main motivations, because it is good timing,” he said.

Provinces in north-eastern Thailand, some near the fighting, are a rich vote bank for Bhumjaithai, while Mr Anutin also has strong allies to deliver constituencies from other regions riding on the wave of patriotism.

In September, 27 per cent of respondents in a nationwide poll said they were undecided on a prime ministerial candidate, while 23 per cent backed the leader of the People’s Party, now the largest bloc in Parliament, and 20 per cent supported Mr Anutin.

With the border issue front and centre in voters’ minds, prevailing public sentiment should fuel Mr Anutin’s popularity, said Professor Stithorn Thananithichot from Chulalongkorn University.

“If Bhumjaithai wins the election, a new government should be formed by April,” he said.

Mr Anutin has been unequivocal in his backing of the military, which most Thais overwhelmingly trust over politicians in securing the country’s national interest.

Pheu Thai and People’s Party

The opposition People’s Party backed Mr Anutin, 59, to

take power in September

after he walked out of a ruling coalition led by the Pheu Thai party.

In a deal with the People’s Party, he agreed to push for constitutional amendments sought by the opposition group and call for elections within four months of taking office.

The arrangement fell through on Dec 11, with the People’s Party accusing Mr Anutin of reneging on their pact, a charge the Prime Minister denies.

Ousted by Mr Anutin, Pheu Thai is also licking its wounds after its main backer, billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was

jailed in September

, and faces flak for his clan’s close links with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.

“In the public mind, the border conflict is partly attributable to whatever is going on between the two families,” said Mr Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think-tank.

The successor of an opposition group blocked from power by military-appointed senators despite winning the last election in 2023, the People’s Party has little to gain from the surge in nationalism because of its political ideology, he added.

“So really, it’s only basically Bhumjaithai out of the big ones that stands to benefit,” Mr Napon said.

The positions of both Pheu Thai and People’s Party reflect a decades-long struggle between populist political outfits and the conservative-royalist elite, which has triggered street protests, occasional bouts of violence and coups.

Mr Anutin and his Bhumjaithai, on the other hand, are seen as backed by parts of the Thai establishment.

Spectre of more instability

Thailand’s third prime minister since August 2023, Mr Anutin launched stimulus measures in an economy struggling with household debt, weak consumption and a strong currency.

But the shrewd political operator has also faced criticism on issues such as fighting

catastrophic southern floods

in November.

Even a patriotic boost may not translate into a clear majority for Mr Anutin in the upcoming poll, however, which could bring more political instability, analysts say.

The conservative establishment may still seek to suppress the People’s Party, allowing another coalition to take shape, said Prof Titipol, pointing to Bhumjaithai’s 2023 backing for Pheu Thai’s bid to take power.

“I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of a reunion between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai,” he said. REUTERS